Ukraine fights back while wall closes in on Putin
Dear Reader,
Since my last bunker briefing, the tide of war on the battlefield has turned in favor of Ukraine. It has huge support in the form of modern weapons, with at least 28 countries contributing weapons, 25 of which are NATO members: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States.
Those most valuable include the US-supplied Lockheed Martin M142 High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS), although the ammunition supplied is thought to be limited to a range of 50 miles (80 km), with the caveat that they should not be used for strikes Russian territory (although certainly this will not apply to territories recently illegally annexed by Russia), the UK supplied the M270B1 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS).
Stopping Russian armor was especially important in the early stages of the invasion, when Thor Javelins, Saab Bofors Dynamics NLAWs and other anti-tank launchers helped stop the armor from orbiting beyond Kyiv and beyond. Other high-value items include mobile anti-gun/mortar radars such as the Northrop Grumman Thales/Thor/AN/TPQ-36, and air surveillance radars such as the AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel.
It is important not to overlook war materiel, especially ammunition, the need for which is never-ending. Ukraine needs an urgent supply of non-NATO standard ammunition (for ex-Soviet/Russian weapons) before large quantities of NATO weapons arrive. About two months after the invasion, on April 25, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) approved the Ukrainian government’s request for such a stockpile, which included: 152mm bullet for the 2A36 Giatsint; 152 for the D-20 cannon mm shell; VOG-17 for automatic grenade launcher AGS-17; 120mm mortar shell (non-NATO); 122mm bullet for 2Sl Gvozdika; BM-21 GRAD rocket; 300mm bullet for MLRS “Smerch”/ Rocket, wait. The order is worth approximately $165 million.
While Russia’s apparent lack of coordination of joint operations appears to remain unresolved – the massive abandonment of tanks and other vehicles and weapons by Ukrainian forces in the face of a Ukrainian army counteroffensive in Kharkiv is a clear example – the intruder It’s another thing to drive out all the territory they stole.
President Putin’s growing despair, witnessing military defeats and setbacks, as well as attempts by hundreds of thousands of eligible people to evade his ill-advised partial mobilization, is in line with his unilateral declaration of annexation of four regions of Ukraine through a deceptive referendum related, causing him to increasingly “double down on losing hands.” Are there any sensible leaders in Russia who were not killed, imprisoned or “retired” by Putin who could convince him through “reason or revolution” to reverse the disaster Sexual invasion, or will Putin be allowed to use his “all” power at disposal (meaning nuclear)?
Andrew DeVega
think for a week
“Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The bigger the general, the more he contributes to maneuver, the less he demands slaughter.”
– Winston S. Churchill
EDA Projects Post-2040 Conflict Resolution
The European Defence Agency (EDA) has engaged defence planners, technology and innovation experts and forward-looking analysts from member states to study how the European Union (EU) responds to possible conflict scenarios in 2040 and beyond. Two tabletop exercises were held, one in Helsinki, Finland in June, and most recently in Brussels, Belgium, from 21 to 22 September.
The Helsinki simulation examines responses to attacks on EU countries, while the Brussels Tabletop Exercise (TTX) “goes beyond a geopolitical flashpoint scenario, in which the country in question falls into full-scale armed conflict and becomes a failed state.”
One of the challenges is to anticipate advances in digital technology, artificial intelligence and computer networks to try and understand the impact these technologies will have on both. These exercises bring together all geographic domains and networks, and combine dynamic and non-dynamic confrontations.
The results of both exercises were fed into the process of developing a longer-term perspective of the EU’s Capacity Development Plan (CDP), the B-chain. The EU’s CDP priorities are defined in four areas:
Chain A – Inadequate CSDP Military Capabilities Derived from the EU Title Target Process;
B-chain – long-term capability development trend;
Part C – Defence plans and programmes of Member States;
Strand D – Lessons learned from missions and actions.
According to EDA: “The purpose of Strand B is not to predict the future, but to forecast defense capability needs and related developments, which is an assessment of various possible factors, including the best utilization of technological advances, when they will be available. Subsequently, CDP Strand B is the EDA framework. The R&T work and long-term capacity activities in the organization inform and facilitate the link between R&T activities and capacity development.”
Major U.S. Arms Sales (Defense Security Cooperation Agency – DSCA).
September 27, 2022 – Kuwait. M1A2K tank combat and training ammunition,
The U.S. State Department has approved a possible sale of M1A2K tank combat and training munitions and related equipment to the government of Kuwait at an estimated cost of $250 million.
September 7, 2022 – Pakistan. F-16 Support Case.
The U.S. State Department has approved a possible foreign military sale of F-16 casings and related equipment to the Pakistani government at an estimated cost of $450 million.
September 2, 2022 – Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States – AIM-9X BLOCK II Sidewinder missile.
The U.S. State Department has approved a possible sale of AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder missiles and related equipment to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States at an estimated cost of $85.6 million.
return
– AGM-84L-1 Harpoon BLOCK II missile
The U.S. State Department has approved a possible sale of the AGM-84L-1 Harpoon Block II missile and related equipment to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States at an estimated cost of $355 million.
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– Contract logistics support for Surveillance Radar Program (SRP)
The U.S. State Department has approved a potential foreign military sales contract to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office to provide logistical support for the Surveillance Radar Program (SRP) and related equipment at an estimated cost of $665.4 million.
next activities
army
4-6 October, Brisbane, Australia
steam
October 10-12, 2022, Washington, DC, USA
Euronaval
October 18-21, Paris, France
Global Military Satellite Communications
8-10 November 2022, London, UK
thanks for reading,
Andrew DeVega
chief editor
International Armada/Asian Military Review
