Global carbon emissions remain at record levels in 2022, the Global Carbon Project science team says – with no sign of urgent reductions needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
If current emission levels persist, there is now a 50% chance of exceeding 1.5°C of global warming within 9 years.
New report predicts total global carbon dioxide2 40.6 billion tons of emissions (GtCO2) in 2022. This is driven by fossil CO2 emissions, which are expected to increase by 1.0% compared to 2021 to 36.6 GtCO2 – Slightly higher than pre-COVID-19 levels in 2019. Emissions from land-use change such as deforestation are projected to be 3.9 GtCO2 2022.
Atmospheric
Emissions from coal and oil are projected to rise above 2021 levels, with oil being the largest contributor to overall emissions growth. The rise in oil emissions can largely be explained by a delayed rebound in international aviation following the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
Mixed picture for major emitters in 2022: China (0.9%) and the European Union (0.8%) are expected to decline in emissions, while the US (1.5%) and India (6%) are expected to increase, of which 1.7% . The rest of the world binds together.
The remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C has been reduced to 380 GtCO2 (to be exceeded in 9 years if emissions remain at 2022 levels) and 1230 GtCO2 to 2°C 30 years at 2022 emissions levels)).
achieve zero carbon dioxide2 Emissions by 2050 now need to be reduced by about 1.4 GtCO2 Each year, comparable to the observed drop in emissions due to COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020, underscoring the scale of action required.
Lands and oceans that absorb and store carbon continue to absorb about half of the carbon dioxide2 emission.Ocean and terrestrial carbon dioxide2 sinks are still increasing in response to atmospheric CO2 increase, although climate change has reduced this increase by 4% (ocean sinks) and 17% (land sinks) over the decade 2012-2021.
meaningful
This year’s carbon budget shows that the long-term growth rate of fossil emissions has slowed. Average growth peaked at +3% per annum in the 2000s, while the past decade has been around +0.5% per annum.
The research team, including the Universities of Exeter, University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO and Ludwig Maximilian University Munich, welcomed the slowdown but said it was “far from the emissions reductions we need. Target”.
The finding comes as world leaders discuss the climate crisis at the COP27 meeting in Egypt.
“This year we’re seeing global fossil carbon dioxide emissions rise again, and we need to come down fast,” said Professor Pierre FriedlinsteinExeter’s Global Systems Institutewho led the study.
