A report by Christian Aid warned that, according to current climate policies, by 2100, the economies of some of the world’s most vulnerable countries may suffer an average of 64% of the hit.
The study also shows that due to the current policies adopted by various countries to deal with climate change, by 2050, each country’s GDP may be reduced by one-fifth, which puts the world on a trajectory of warming 2.9 degrees Celsius.
It warned that even if the world achieves the goal of controlling global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the GDP of fragile countries may still be reduced by 13% by 2050, and by the end of this century by an average of one-third.
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When the report was released, the focus of the Cop26 talks was to help poorer countries adapt to rising temperatures and the losses and destruction caused by climate change.
Activists warn that a robust system is needed to deal with the inevitably loss and damage to people, land, livelihoods and infrastructure due to rising temperatures, and to take more actions to reduce emissions.
Climate-vulnerable countries want to see the establishment of a fund to finance loss and damage through the United Nations system.
This study, coordinated by the economist Marina Andrijevic of the Humboldt University of Berlin, looks at the economic losses to the least developed countries and countries most vulnerable to climate change (such as small island countries) .
It found that Africa is particularly at risk-8 of the top 10 most affected countries are from the African continent.
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The worst-hit country will be Sudan. By 2050, its GDP will be reduced by 32% and 84% due to current policies in response to global warming.
The country was hit by heavy rains and flash floods in September. Even if the temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, GDP may still fall by 22% and 51% by 2050 and 2100.
The people behind the research said that the methods used did not consider measures to help countries adapt to changing climates, so investment in this area could mitigate some of the damage.
But it also only considers the effects of rising temperatures, which means that the additional damage caused by extreme weather events may make the economic prospects of these countries worse, Ms. Andrijevic said.
“Based on the historical relationship between GDP growth and climate variables, we are here to extrapolate how the future under climate change may affect economic performance.
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“We have got a staggering number, which means that the sustainable development capabilities of countries in the global South are seriously threatened, and the policy choices we are making now are critical to preventing further damage.”
Nushrat Chowdhury, a climate justice consultant from the Christian aid organization in Bangladesh, said: “From Bangladesh, I have seen how loss and destruction have affected my people.
“Houses, land, schools, hospitals, and roads are being damaged and destroyed by floods and hurricanes.
“People are losing everything. Sea levels are rising and people urgently need to adapt to changing conditions.
“This report shows that even if we keep the temperature rise at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the GDP impact of Bangladesh will exceed 38% by 2100.
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“If there is evidence that a specific loss and damage mechanism is needed, that’s it.”
Mohamed Adow, head of Power Shift Africa, a Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank, said: “This report shows the scale of the economic disaster Africa is facing due to climate change.
“Africa has done the least in causing climate change, but this report shows that it will face the most serious consequences. This is very unfair.
“It is shameful that rich countries have been preventing the establishment of loss and damage funds in response to this injustice.
“In Glasgow, this attitude needs to change. Not only because it is needed, but if rich countries continue to ignore the needs of the most vulnerable, the bill will only get bigger.”
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Emily Beament is the PA Environmental Correspondent.
