Globalization persists in the pandemic
Today I will take the first flight since March 2020. This is not an international flight, just JetBlue flying from JFK to Los Angeles International Airport, but the past year and a half seems strange and static. I’m not someone who likes to travel and can’t wait for the next adventure, but professional work takes me to many places, and it seems almost unnatural to limit these contacts to Zoom and email. Even though the trend continues and delta variants leave many people on the edge, we are still learning how to navigate this COVID era and restore our path on earth. People and goods are moving, and even the risk of COVID-19 cannot be stopped.
The global supply chain has been disrupted, but the purchasing agent is looking for a backup. Due to changes in consumption patterns, global shipping is under tremendous pressure. Due to changes in the normal supply and demand pattern, the supply of containers has been in short supply. In a wonderful article on issues in the shipping industry, New York Times Reporters Peter S. Goodman, Alexandra Stevenson, Niraj Chokshi and Michael Corkery observed:
“In a broad sense, the global trade volume in 2020 is only 1% lower than the previous year. But this does not reflect the development of this year-April and May plunged more than 12%, followed by the same dramatic reversal. System Unable to adjust, put the container in the wrong place and push the transportation price to a very high level.”
The point is that the global pandemic has changed, but it has not diminished the existence of global trade and the importance of global supply chains. The pandemic is disrupting the manufacturing and shipping industries, and the shortage of materials is fueling inflation, but just as water is flowing downhill, global trade is almost showing gravitation. In China, active measures to contain the virus have been discontinued, but there has been no reduction in international trade.The strength of China’s export economy and the chaos of China’s shipping industry are the subject of a story New York Times On July 13, reporter Keith Bradsher wrote:
“The General Administration of Customs of China announced on Tuesday that China’s exports in June increased by 32.2% year-on-year. This increase surprised many economists because one of China’s largest ports was partially closed for most of June and China’s medical services The export of supplies has begun to stabilize…One of the largest ports in the world, Yantian Port in Shenzhen, a city in southeastern China, Partially closed From late May to most of June. Shenzhen has taken action against fewer than two dozen coronavirus cases. When the port fully reopened on June 24, shipping executives and freight forwarders hope that trade can begin to return to normal. It is not resolved this way. After several weeks of docking in Shenzhen, dozens of large container ships are far behind plan. This meant that ships later appeared in groups in other countries’ ports, causing further congestion. Chinese export factories also use trucks to transport goods to other ports, such as Shanghai, which also makes these ports overcrowded. “
What is worth noting is not the interruption of trade, but the continued existence of trade in the face of numerous restrictions caused by the pandemic. The supply and demand pattern is established as 21YingshiThe turn of the century’s economy to globalization has proved to be very long-lasting. People have become accustomed to seeing the entire planet as a single social and economic system.
When students apply for an undergraduate college or graduate school, many people no longer restrict their search in local geography. It turns out that students who want to study in another country are not willing to give up their dreams. At Columbia University, we saw the determination of international students to come to New York City. Last year, the sudden and unpredictable shift to online teaching, coupled with travel restrictions, caused a large number of professional degree graduate students to postpone enrolling in our courses. This year, those students who are waiting to start their studies will join the newly admitted student body, and the number of graduate students enrolled may increase significantly. The students have learned how to deal with the harsh tests of visas, travel and immunization requirements, and have begun to participate in courses starting at the end of this month.
In Colombia, all students, faculty and staff must be tested and vaccinated, but they must still be aware of the risks of COVID-19 and know that we must take measures to reduce exposure and risks. But a year and a half later, as we learn to deal with the greater risks posed by traveling or gathering in a group environment, the impact of these restrictions has eased.
All of us are eager to return to normal life. Family gatherings and social events were cancelled for more than a year and are now back, even though COVID seems to persist. The global tourism industry has recovered. Although it has not reached the level before the epidemic, global business travel is slowly beginning to recover, and it may take several years to fully recover. One of the problems with business travel is expectations. If customers and colleagues don’t want to see you in person, the stress of travel will be reduced. However, once this expectation is restored, competitive pressure will require travel, regardless of risk.
The persistence of the global economy is related to the logic of its creation. Ironically, globalization stems from the importance of locality. Each geographic location has its own ecosystem, culture, population, and history, and thus has a comparative advantage in the development of specific goods and services. When combined with low-cost information, barcodes, computing, communications, and low-cost container transportation, it becomes possible to build globally sourced goods and services. A supply chain built on these differences will be more effective and efficient than a supply chain subject to geographical restrictions. This, in turn, makes global procurement of goods and services cheaper and of higher quality. As these products compete, global products tend to win.
During the pandemic, even if we can’t go anywhere else, we can see and imagine them through Zoom calls, Netflix shows, and social media. Under normal circumstances, these images will stimulate travel needs. In the COVID era, the global image is the lifeline of the real world in our memory, and we hope that it will not become an illusion. My feeling is that just as our students are eager to start their studies, the demand for global travel has also been suppressed a lot. When the pandemic subsides, I expect that as people try to make up for lost time, we will see a boom in travel.
COVID has distorted globalization, and the threat of other epidemics may cause further changes in international trade and travel. Xenophobia and extreme nationalism have a counterproductive effect on immigration, global travel and international trade. But the behavior of global trade during COVID is empirical evidence of the persistence of globalization. Technology has made the earth smaller and improved our ability to interact with each other. Professionals in research, education, art, entertainment, manufacturing, service, technology, and sports are increasingly doing business globally. The pandemic has affected all these areas, but despite the distortions, people have managed to work together.A vivid example of the persistence caused by the pandemic is 2020 year The Summer Olympics are now being held in Japan 2021The athletes tested positive for COVID-19, and their replacements flew in to participate in the competition shortly after arrival. The world’s top athletes competed a year late on a weird and empty field-but they were playing while TV ratings had dropped and millions of people were watching.
It is now clear that our recovery from COVID-19 will be one of two steps forward and backward. We will learn to manage rather than end the pandemic. We will adapt to our new reality by learning to participate as safely as possible, rather than avoiding others. The global economy will continue, and its technology will continue to advance. Eventually, we will find ourselves in a post-pandemic world where COVID will disappear but is far from forgotten.
