Nearly 200,000 households and businesses in England are at risk of disappearing due to rising sea levels by the 2050s, a study suggests.
The study investigated how rising sea levels from climate change, and the erosion of foreshores by waves, could increase coastal flooding risk, warning that some communities may not be protected.
Experts have warned that there is an urgent need for a national debate on the threat of flooding to coastal communities and long-term clarity on “transformative change” in some areas, including retreating defenses and moving property.
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The study was published in the journal Ocean and Coastal Managementcompares the rising risk of coastal flooding with existing coastal management policies.
By 2050, England could face about 35 centimeters (14 inches) of sea level rise compared to historical levels, and it will almost certainly rise by nearly a meter (3 feet) by the end of the century, the study said.
Rising sea levels, coupled with increased wave-driven erosion, are increasing the risk of coastal flooding, forcing governments and communities to decide how to respond—mainly by building and maintaining fortifications to maintain defenses against the sea, or realigning shorelines and moving property.
For a thousand miles of the UK coast (1,600-1,900km), there will be significant pressure to reconsider current policy to maintain this line, as it may become unfeasible due to rising costs, or technically, the study says is not possible.
This is around 30% of the coastline with queuing policies in place that could affect around 120,000 to 160,000 properties (excluding caravans) by the 2050s, some of which may need to be relocated.
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The study said it was impossible to determine how many people would need to be relocated as it would be a matter of government, policy and funding for flood protection.
That figure is on top of the 30,000 to 35,000 properties in areas that have been identified as having realignment policies.
The study focuses on the impact of flooding and excludes properties that are directly at risk of coastal erosion, such as clifftop homes.
Most at risk are single communities, scattered groups of houses and buildings on long floodplains such as Somerset levels, areas with narrow spaces between the shoreline and rising ground, and small marinas and coastal port communities found across Cornwall.
Analysis highlights that by the 2050s and 2080s the local authorities facing the greatest challenges in tackling sea level rise are likely to be: Somerset; Wyle; Marshlands; Touch; Maldon; Suffolk Coast; North Norfolk ; Cornwall; Medway; and Sedge Moore.
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The study did not take into account local features or nationally important infrastructure such as nuclear power plants, which means that the immediate coastline will be protected in the long run.
Paul Sayers, an engineering consultant working with the Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia and conducting analyses for the Climate Change Commission, said: “Significant sea level rise is now inevitable.
“For many of our large cities along the coast, protection will continue to be provided, but for some coastal communities this may not be possible.
“We need a serious national debate on the scale of the threat to these communities and what represents a fair and sustainable response, including how to help people resettle.”
Responding to the study, Jim Hall, professor of climate and environmental risk at Oxford University, said: “We need to have an honest dialogue with coastal communities because it is simply impossible to protect every home and business from rising sea levels.
“These changes are coming sooner than we thought and we now need to plan how we will adapt, including developing a national strategic approach to how the coast will be managed sustainably in the future.”
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Emily Beament is the PA Environmental Correspondent.
