How to Prepare for an Overactive Hurricane Season
A house in Houston, Texas, with its windows boarded up before Hurricane Ike in 2008. photo: west trentalo
This year could be a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic. From June 1 to November 30, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict Above-average activity, 14 to 21 named storms are possible, of which 6 to 10 may become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, or 5).
Jeffrey Schlegelmilch is the director of the National Disaster Preparedness Center at the Columbia Climate School. In the Q&A below, he explains what the forecast means, who should be prepared for, and how to prepare for the coming storm.
What does an “above average” forecast like this mean? Should we be worried?
Jeffrey Schlegelmilch is the director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia Climate School.
On the one hand, it is very important to be aware of and express the increased likelihood of suffering a disaster. That being said, we’ve seen some pretty destructive hurricanes over the years with below-average hurricane counts. It really only takes one person to hit you, hurricanes don’t care if it’s a busy year. So it’s definitely an opportunity to pay more attention, but I would say that every year we need to pay close attention.
Who is at risk?
Many times we think the risk is close to the coast. But just because your house isn’t on the beach doesn’t mean you’re not on the coast. You could be 100 miles inland and still experience heavy rainfall from the remnants of a hurricane.
We have to separate ourselves from terms like “hurricane” and “Category 5” as a measure of risk, as this is largely based on wind speed, and most damage usually comes from flooding and storm surge. One of the most important storms in memory is Sandy, which was not a hurricane when it made landfall near New York. Ida made landfall in Louisiana last year, but its impact stretched for thousands of miles with powerful storms. So we must heed the forecasts, but we must also heed the warnings and take steps to protect our homes and businesses.
“Hurricanes don’t care if the year is busy.”
It is also important to note that those who are already vulnerable – bearing a disproportionate burden in areas such as health, economy, transportation, housing, minority status, etc. – see increased vulnerability after disasters. Organizations are often very good at identifying this and are doing something to try and close the gap, but we haven’t done that yet. So equity needs to really be the primary focus of resilience, response and recovery.
What can individuals do to prepare?
First, it comes down to some basic preparation strategies and listening to local authorities.
For individuals and families, we have some resources on our website, including Preparation wizard and Five steps to preparation. There are also resources from Ready.gov and red cross. It really boils down to food, water, shelter, a communication plan with the family, special needs, medication, young children and pets, that sort of thing. You may be in a situation where you either have to leave quickly and want to make sure you have everything, or you’re going to have to stay in one place for a long time without having access to certain things you’re used to, like roads and electricity.
Through FEMA, our center also provides Post-disaster housing and post-disaster economic recovery training, including which procedures are available after a disaster. These can tell you what to look out for. We also have a number of financial literacy courses for individuals and businesses. For this hurricane season, it might be too late to improve your credit score, but it might not be too late to put some money into savings or look at things like an insurance policy.
What is the state and local level of readiness?
Apart from FEMA trainingthe National Disaster Prevention Center provides a various resources Help communities and states plan for disaster, recovery and building resilience. For example, for organisations working with children, we have our Resilient Children/Resilient Communities Toolboxwhich provides programs, training and guidance to help build the resilience of child-centered communities.
It’s important for communities and states to understand their preparedness information and plans, but also to acknowledge that many people don’t have as much money as they used to now for a variety of reasons, including inflationary pressures. The dollar hasn’t gotten very far in preparation, so it’s pushing people toward greater vulnerability. This can affect their basic level of readiness, as well as the availability of donations and volunteers, as well as the cost of materials for shelters, supporters, and the like. We may see a need for more aid, and we may see aid more expensive than usual.
Another concern is that our pandemic continues and we are in a gray area of pandemic control measures. If you open a shelter in the summer of 2020, there will be very strict rules for people to keep their distance, wear masks, etc. Now, I worry that this might be a political decision. Some of the most vulnerable states, such as Florida, are the most resistant to pandemic measures. I am very concerned about the possibility of politics influencing rational planning and coping strategies.
My advice to states and organizations of all sizes is to make sure you have an emergency response to COVID-19 infection and other infections that may spread in a sheltered setting. If not, it could lead to a public health disaster followed by a meteorological disaster.
Is there anything I can do to prepare at the federal level?
Organizations like FEMA, the Red Cross, and state and local emergency management agencies prepare for hurricanes every year. I think forecasts like this year raise blood pressure a little bit, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about what, when and where.
FEMA is under increasing pressure on the number of declared disasters and the staff available to respond to them. The simple answer is to put more money into the system. While this is a somewhat correct answer, it’s not a very sustainable answer. The only way to get ahead of it is to invest more in resilience and preparedness.
some federal programs such as Building resilient infrastructure and communities Plan, does have a built-in flex theme. We won’t see a return on these long-term investments this hurricane season, but five to ten years from now, they could save a lot of lives and money.
Is there anything to prepare for a disaster?
When we’re talking about things like weather forecasts and storm tracks, there’s a lot of uncertainty, but there’s still a lot of decisions to be made. We will never have all the information we want, so we need to make sure we create choices for what we can do, knowing that sometimes it will help us avoid disaster and sometimes it will be a pair that ends up turning right instead of A left-turn storm made an expensive reaction, so it wasn’t as bad as predicted. That doesn’t mean the decision was wrong. It’s all part of a healthy preparation and response process.
