Researchers in Oakland, California Caesars Medical Institution A tool was developed to help the health system predict the surge in Covid-19 cases six weeks in advance.
Covid-19 cases are on the rise in the United States, Quadruple growth The number of new cases per day in the past month.In a study describing how they developed the score, the researchers stated that the tool can help providers manage and mitigate the impending surge of fatal diseases Published in BMJ Open.
“Covid-19 has always been a dynamic threat, so there is no single wave or surge that looks exactly like another that affects the performance of predictions and prediction models,” said study author, Dr. Vincent Liu, Regional Director of Advanced Analysis at Kaiser Permanente Hospital. Northern California, in an email. “This variability is a by-product of disease biology, policies to combat the spread of viruses, and differences in social distancing practices between individuals and communities.”
To create their predictive tool called the Covid Hotspotting Score, Liu and his colleagues examined millions of health system data points to determine the most useful leading indicator of the surge in Covid-19 hospitalizations.
“By weaving these different data streams into a single hotspot score, we were able to extend the preparation time to identify emerging Covid-19 events to six weeks,” Liu said.
The researchers conducted the study in a comprehensive health system in Northern California, which includes 21 hospitals and 4.5 million members. They incorporated 10 variables into the score, including four main indicators, such as the new Covid-19 positive test, and six secondary indicators, such as respiratory virus testing.
These indicators are passively collected from the system’s EHR and are closely related to the upcoming Covid-19 specific hospital capacity-up to six weeks before three consecutive Covid-19 waves.
Liu said that the Covid Hotspotting Score helped Kaiser Permanente prepare its leaders, clinicians and hospitals for the surge, and the algorithm can now be used in other health systems so that they can use it in conjunction with their own data.
He added that the simpler version of the score can also be used in facilities that may have different depth of data than Kaiser, including calls and emails initiated by patients.
But the researchers said in the study that the tool does have its limitations. This includes that the score was derived using data from a single health system in a single region of the United States, thus leading to a lack of indicators of local Covid-19 activity that may still affect hospitalization rates.
They wrote: “Additional external verification of the tool is also important to ensure its versatility outside of our system.”
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