Myanmar’s economy has been in turmoil since the military coup on February 1, 2021, to the point that the World Bank said it was unable to calculate the country’s growth forecast beyond its estimates for fiscal 2021.[s] Myanmar is excluded after 2021, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Outlook report released on June 7. Myanmar’s economy shrank by 18% in fiscal 2021 after growing by 6.8% and 3.2%. The percentages before the coup in 2019 and 2020, respectively…
Myanmar’s economy has been in turmoil since the military coup on February 1, 2021, to the point that the World Bank said it was unable to calculate the country’s growth forecast beyond fiscal 2021.
“forecast[s] Myanmar beyond 2021 is excluded due to high uncertainty,” the World Bank said in its report. Global Economic Outlook Report Released June 7.
The table in the report shows that Myanmar’s economy has contracted an estimated 18% in fiscal 2021 after growing by 6.8% in 2019 and 3.2% before the 2020 coup. Outlook for East Asia and the Pacific show. No data is given for the period 2022 to 2024, while most other larger developing countries show gradual improvement in their gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts.
Myanmar is the only country in the East Asia and Pacific region where the World Bank has not released economic forecasts this time around.
A downward spiral since the coup
Myanmar’s economy has been in a downward spiral since its military takeover last year, with major international investors fleeing the country, banks barely functioning and inflation rising amid daily clashes between regime and anti-junta forces across the country .
The military junta has exacerbated the situation by imposing foreign exchange and trade regulations, wreaking havoc on import and export markets and even triggering fuel shortages in major commercial centers.
“The near-term outlook remains fragile due to sharp increases in input prices, recurring power outages, escalating conflicts, and recently introduced trade and foreign exchange restrictions,” the World Bank said.
currency in free fall
Myanmar’s local currency, the kyat, has been in free fall since the military took over, from about 1,391 kyats to about 1,850 kyats to the dollar, which remains an unrealistic reference rate set by Myanmar’s central bank. The black market exchange rate of the kyat has fallen to an all-time low of 2,200 per dollar in recent months.
In an attempt to make a positive change, Myanmar government spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun announced that between February 1, 2021 and the end of May 2022, about US$3.98 billion in foreign direct investment will enter Myanmar. The power sector received the most investment at $3.1 billion and created nearly 49,000 jobs, he said at a June 3 news conference. Ayeyarwady.
Observers say the investments come almost entirely from China, with some from Singapore-registered companies of Myanmar business tycoons close to the junta.
The International Labour Organization said earlier this year that Myanmar will lose about 1.6 million jobs in 2021 due to the combined impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the negative impact of the military coup on the economy.
While all sectors of the economy have been affected, construction, clothing and tourism and hospitality have been hit the hardest, with employment in those sectors down by about a third, the agency said.
