diversification
This dependence comes at a high price. Shell looks set to take a loss of around $3 billion as a result of its decision to pull out of all joint ventures with Russia’s state holding company. Gazpromalthough BP The company faces potential losses of up to $25 billion after exiting its stake in Rosneft.
Some governments are leading the way. U.S. President Joe Biden has banned Russian oil and gas imports to the U.S., Britain has also banned Russian oil imports, and the European Union has unveiled a plan to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds within a year.
The moves are significant given that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, shipping nearly 8 million barrels a day to global markets late last year, according to the International Energy Agency. About 60% of Russia’s oil exports go to Europe – about 2% of which goes to the UK – and 8% to the US.
These moves are an important reminder that something can be done even in the worst-case scenario. A rush of plans in the EU and elsewhere to deal with the fallout from Russia’s reliance on fossil fuels shows how quickly energy policy can change.
other key institutions such as International Energy Agencyalso called on the EU to further reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, including the rapid deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency measures and short-term diversification of natural gas supplies.
Proliferation
Frans Timmermans, executive vice president of the European Green Deal, said: “It is time for us to address our vulnerabilities and quickly become more independent in our energy choices. Let us rush at lightning speed. To renewables. Renewables are cheap, clean and potentially endless sources of energy, and instead of funding the fossil fuel industry elsewhere, they create jobs here.”
This is not uncharted territory. The Rapid Transformation Coalition has built an impressive set of examples with lessons on how to rapidly redesign energy systems away from oil, coal and gas. OPEC crisiswhen the government’s reliance on fossil fuels was exposed, a surge of interest in energy efficiency and renewable energy followed.
Reactive measures will always be necessary. But one of the added benefits of the NPT is not from crisis to crisis. We first presented in 2018 are fuels that can more easily exit the polluting climate and do so in a fair and orderly manner.
The proposal itself was inspired by the 50th anniversary of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – agreed in just three years at the height of the Cold War between its key players. We have learned a lot more since the recent Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered international law.
The treaty will have three key pillars: non-proliferation – limiting further production of fossil fuels; disarmament – reducing existing reserves and infrastructure; and peaceful use, just transition.
ceasefire
First, what is that Fossil Treaty The advice is that it’s a good idea to stop digging when you’re in a hole.
The more continued oil and gas exploration and production, and the deeper our reliance on fossil fuels, the harder it will be to climb out and make the necessary low-carbon transition to meet international climate goals. Further locking in fossil fuels and delaying the transition has also made it easier for major oil and gas producers to hold countries they still rely on as hostages.
Second, while this would mean a rapid phase-out for many countries, it would avoid a sudden, sudden and disruptive halt in any one particular country, as we are now seeing in Russia. An equitable, rules-based approach that takes into account historical responsibility, current needs, and the ability to build alternatives provides a more promising approach to addressing the necessary global fossil fuel reductions.
Of course, as we know from oil wars and oil violence, fossil fuels themselves are a source of conflict. But they soon became weapons in other conflicts, such as now Russia in Ukraine.
Halting further exploration and production could allow more energy and resources to flow into renewable energy alternatives, investments that increase efficiency and reduce demand, thereby removing the heat of conflict and increasing the chances of peace. A fossil treaty is a way of laying the groundwork for a ceasefire on fossil fuels.
these authors
Andrew Simms is New Meteorological Institutecoordinator Rapid Transition Coalition, and co-author of the original Green New Deal.he is on twitter @AndrewSimms_uk.
Peter Newell is Director of Research at the Rapid Transformation Alliance. He is Professor of International Relations at the University of Sussex.
You Can Support the Fossil Fuel NPT Movement here.
