stunning failure of the west
China’s growth in nuclear power stands in stark contrast to the spectacular failure of reactor-building programs in the US, UK and France.
In the US, the only reactor construction project is the Vogtle project in Georgia, which has two AP1000 reactors.Newest Cost Estimate The $34 billion investment is more than double the estimated $1.4-15.5 billion when construction began.
Costs are mounting and the project only survives because of billions of taxpayer dollars bail out.
The VC Summer project in South Carolina is planned to have two AP1000 reactors, abandoned About $9 billion was spent in 2017.
In 2006, Westinghouse stated that it could $1.4 billion ‒ 12 times lower than the current estimate for Vogtle.
The Golden Rule of Nuclear Economics
In the late 2000s, the estimated construction cost of an EPR reactor in the UK was £2 billion.Cost estimates for the two EPR reactors currently under construction at Hinkley Point – the only reactor construction project in the UK – are £32.7 billion.
The current cost estimate is therefore more than eight times the initial estimate of £2 billion per reactor.
The only current reactor construction project in France is an EPR reactor in Flamanville.current cost estimate 19.1 billion euros That’s almost six times higher than the initial estimate of 3.3 billion euros. EDF and others cite lower figures, but those figures generally do not include financial costs.
Inflated cost estimates for the US, UK and France have increased 12-fold, 8-fold and 6-fold, respectively. So we can set the golden rule of nuclear economics: add a zero to industry estimates, and your estimates will be closer to the norm than theirs.
‘Turbo-charging’ renewable energy growth
The stagnation of nuclear power contrasts sharply with the growth of renewable energy.renewable energy expansion About 320 GW Last year was 76 times the nuclear growth of 4.2 GW.
same pattern in 2021: Nuclear power capacity fell by 0.4 GW, while renewable energy capacity increased by 314 GW, including 257 GW of non-hydro renewables.
Based on 29.1% of global electricity generation in 2022, renewables including hydropower 2023 Electricity Market Report The International Energy Agency reports – more than three times nuclear’s share of 9.4%.
Nucleus has been overtake Caused by non-hydro renewables, fell below 10% for the first time in decades.
The growth of renewable energy is turbocharged In its report released last December, the IEA said that as countries seek to enhance energy security Renewable Energy 2022 Report.
Renewables will soon overtake coal and natural gas
International Energy Agency project By 2025, renewable energy generation will account for 34.6% of the world’s total electricity generation, and renewable energy will surpass coal and natural gas.
International Energy Agency project Renewable energy generation grows to 38% of the global total by 2027, while the share of all other sources (coal, gas, nuclear and oil) declines from 2022-27.
Wind and solar photovoltaic power generation is expected to more than double by 2027, accounting for nearly 20 percent of global electricity generation.
International Energy Agency project China will install nearly half of the world’s new renewable energy capacity from 2022 to 2027, and growth is accelerating despite wind and solar PV subsidies being phased out.
Combined wind (656 terawatt hours – TWh), solar (327 TWh) and hydro (1300 TWh) in China in 2021 Generated Six times the electricity (383 TWh) of nuclear power.
China, US and India to double renewable power generation
International Energy Agency project From 2022-27, China, the US and India will all double their renewable electricity generation, accounting for two-thirds of the global increase.
International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol explain December 2022: “Renewable energy is already expanding rapidly, but the global energy crisis has propelled it into an extraordinary new phase of faster growth as countries seek to capitalize on their energy security advantages.
“The world will add as much renewable energy in the next five years as it has in the past 20.
“This is a clear example of how the current energy crisis is a historic turning point towards a cleaner and safer energy system. The continued acceleration of renewable energy is crucial to help keep global warming limited to 1.5°C Openness is critical.”
Ukraine’s nuclear risk
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to be at risk of a nuclear catastrophe.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has published a Report Note that several of Ukraine’s five nuclear power plants and other facilities have been directly shelled over the past year.
International Atomic Energy Agency Report states that: “Each of the IAEA’s seven integral key pillars of ensuring nuclear safety and security in armed conflict are compromised, including the physical integrity of nuclear facilities; the operation of safety and security systems; the working conditions of employees; supply chains, communication channels, radiation monitoring and emergency arrangements; and critical off-site power sources.”
The loss of off-site power, and thus reliance on diesel generators to power the reactor cooling, greatly increases the risk of a nuclear fuel meltdown and significantly increases the risk of a nuclear catastrophe.
International Atomic Energy Agency Report It further states: “Bombardment, airstrikes, reduced personnel, difficult working conditions, frequent off-site power outages, supply chain interruptions and unavailability of spare parts, as well as deviations from planned activities and normal operations, have affected every nuclear facility in Ukraine and involved radioactive sources many activities.
“The reliability of the nation’s electrical infrastructure, which is essential for the safe and secure operation of nuclear facilities, has also been affected, and for the first time since the start of the armed conflict, all countries are affected [nuclear power plant] website, including [Chernobyl] site while losing off-site power on November 23, 2022. “
Aside from the horrors a nuclear catastrophe would bring to Ukrainians, it would certainly lead to a global nuclear death spiral.
the author
Dr. Jim Green is a national nuclear activist Friends of the Earth Australia and main author Submit in detail to current senate inquiry Access to nuclear energy in Australia.
