Warning: Pakistan is at a boiling point
Many parts of South Asia experienced record temperatures in April. source: NOAA
Pakistan is one of the hottest places in the world this weekend.
My hometown of Karachi, with a population of 25 million, was deformed by a heat of 102°F (38.9°C).
Temperatures were even higher in Jacobabad and Nawabshah, home to nearly 500,000 people, with multiple days of record highs above 120°F (48.9°C).
The 14-day forecast is even worse: Lahore is expected to hit 122°F (50°C) next weekend.
With searing temperatures sweeping across the world’s fifth most populous nation (and fifth most climate vulnerable), Pakistanis without reliable access to energy are sweltering endlessly in the sweltering heat.
rural and low-income areas in 9 to 12 hour power outage. Pakistan’s recent energy crisis has dealt a severe blow to an already overwhelmed and dilapidated grid system, unable to meet the country’s surging electricity demand. Prices for coal and LNG, key inputs to Pakistan’s fossil-fueled power plants, continued to soar during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pushing prices well beyond the purchasing power of the impoverished South Asian country currently saddled with more than $216 billion in national debt.
This horrific tragedy is playing out against the backdrop of the global COVID-19 pandemic, chronic water shortages and extreme conditions. Floods caused by rapidly melting glaciersas of two days ago, a deadly cholera outbreak Infected thousands in northern Pakistan. Soaring temperatures also threaten important cash crop exports and the food security of 220 million people, most of whom already live in severe multidimensional poverty, in terms of health (nutrition, child mortality), education (years of schooling, school attendance) rate)) and standard of living (cooking fuel, sanitation, drinking water, electricity, housing and assets).
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that April 2022 was the hottest time in Pakistan and India since global records began in 1880. May 2022 may follow suit.
Global extreme events map for April 2022. source: NOAA
These unprecedented heatwaves threaten the livelihoods of millions of low-income Pakistanis who are casual workers, farmers and outdoor workers who cannot afford to “hide” and stay indoors during the peak heat wave period of 11am-4pm. Overexposure to heat and humidity can limit the extent to which the body cools through sweating, which can be fatal in older adults and those with underlying health conditions, but can also quickly become fatal in younger and otherwise healthy individuals. The heat also worsens the health of at-risk groups, especially those with asthma and respiratory diseases, as Pakistan has the second-best air quality in the world.
this National Disaster Management Agency, Pakistan Meteorological Servicestate and local governments and disaster management have collectively issued extensive warnings about dangerous temperatures and deadly heatstroke warning signs to the general public, especially among children and the elderly, including through emergency text messages and social media posts.
Warning signs about heat stroke and heat stroke.Source: Punjab Medical Council; You Say; Pakistan Disaster Authority
Unfortunately, Pakistan’s national and local disaster management plans have fallen short of the level of funding, inclusiveness and urgency needed to address the scale of the crisis.A review of various official documents confirms this, including Karachi Heat Wave Management Planthis 100 million tree tsunami afforestation project (Year 2014), 10 Billion Trees Tsunami Project (2018), Inclusive Wealth in Pakistan: The Case for Investing in Natural Capital and Recovery (2021), and more recently Update Nationally Determined Contributions Presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at COP26 (2021).
Pakistan’s current disaster risk reduction and disaster management strategy is noticeably lacking in the following:
- Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction to Support High-Risk, Disabled and Older Pakistanis:
Key risk reduction recommendations lack specific strategies to meet the unique needs and vulnerabilities of people with disabilities and older adults, especially those living in rural and remote communities. Central governments may also need to consider earmarking (or raising) emergency funds for food and water during the worst heatwaves to protect farmers, laborers and outdoor workers from exposure.
- A public-private partnership for thermal management and ‘clean’ cooling:
Pakistan Refrigeration Action Plan requires a clear policy directive to buy back and/or phase out R22 and R22 Freon air conditioners, which are starting to be sold at low prices in Pakistan international ban in more developed countries. The Department of Climate Change must also seek partnerships with cities in Europe and North America to help design and fund the billions needed for robust heatwave management strategies.
- A viable long-term development strategy for addressing chronic energy insecurity in Pakistan:
Energy scarcity and insecurity will continue to exacerbate climate risks and lead to huge GDP losses, while hindering the development of Pakistani youth (over 64% of the population are aged 30 and below), who face severe disruption to their studies and employment as Adverse physical and mental health.
The call for climate action has never been clearer, nor has there been more compelling evidence that climate change is a serious threat multiplier for the world’s poorest and most vulnerable front-line nations.
Pakistan’s nightmare scenario is not 2050 or 2100.
If nothing changes, and fast, many in Pakistan may not even survive 2030.
Hadia Sheerazi is Project Manager Carbon Management Research Program at Columbia Climate School Global Energy Policy Center.
