Risks and choices of population surge in flooded areas, regardless of whether they are rich or poor
Humans are profoundly heating the climate and changing storm patterns by emitting large amounts of heat-absorbing gases and other pollution. However, in areas prone to flooding, there have also been a large number of settlements-giving rise to what some geographers call “Expand bullseye“Exposure to climate-related threats, such as floods. Of course, the poorest and most marginalized people always suffer the most.
A sort of Groundbreaking research, Published in nature On Wednesday, the estimate of population growth in flood-affected areas was greatly improved, and a sober forecast was provided that flood risk will greatly increase by 2030, without major changes in policies at all levels. Fortunately, this work of screening millions of high-resolution satellite images has also produced a new open access tool, Global Flood DatabaseThis allows officials, the financial sector and the community to have a clearer understanding of the risks they create, and has the opportunity to shape a safer development path in the critical years of the future.
In the live broadcast What webcast to maintain Friday, August 6, noon Eastern Time, with host Andy Revkin Columbia Climate School and revkin.bulletin.com In a quick discussion focusing on solutions with the lead author Beth Tellman of the paper and top experts from far away such as Bangladesh and South Africa.
Tellman did most of the satellite work during his post-doc at Columbia University International Institute of Climate and SocietyShe will move to the University of Arizona this summer and is also the co-founder and chief scientific officer of Cloud to Street, a public interest company that builds the database used in the research.
Other guests are Jean-Martin Bauer, Senior Digital Advisor of the United Nations World Food Program and former country director of the Republic of Congo for the program; Salem Hook, Director of the International Center for Climate Change and Development; Catherine Sutherland, Associate Professor of Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal; and Simon Young, Senior Director of Global Consulting Company (focusing on climate and resilience) Willis Stavorson.
There is no need to register.only Add this link Go to your preferred calendar and click to watch in three ways. Or watch it on YouTube:
The following is an excerpt from Revkin’s announcement article on the paper and related issues:
Research finds that the reason for the surge in global flood exposure goes far beyond climate change
A groundbreaking study of high-resolution satellite imagery and population data in the past 20 years shows that dozens of countries, rich or poor, are increasing the risk of flooding on the ground far faster than climate change.
The main driving force is the rapid changes in population dynamics. The research team estimates that between 2000 and 2015, as many as 86 million people worldwide migrated to flooded areas. In fact, the estimated population growth rate of flood-prone areas is 24% faster than outside. According to this study, these areas are more than 10 times the previous estimate. Published this week in the journal Nature.
Researchers say this influx is driven by promising urbanization processes, most of which are along waterways or coasts, and deep-rooted disregard or prejudice forces tens of millions of poor or marginalized people into vulnerable The devastating push of floodplains or steep slopes is even in today’s originally prosperous communities.
The author concludes that by 2030, in any case of carbon dioxide emissions that generate heat, population growth and paving in flood-prone areas will continue to magnify the dangers of flooding, just like weekly headlines.
Explore the details Posts about research From Columbia University’s International Climate and Society Institute, lead author Beth Tellman did most of the work.
This new study, which became the cover of the magazine, adds a layer of terrifying detail to a hidden aspect of the climate crisis warned by geographers More than ten years: Communities around the world are increasing flood risk faster than climate change can affect floods.
The detailed information comes from five years of collation and analysis of millions of high-resolution satellite images and data reflecting local population changes. Most studies that measure flood risk, including those used by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, rely on static models.
As this research has done for populations, identifying the core drivers of climate risk is an important first step in transforming knowledge into desired impacts.This work is a good example of what Adam Sobel, a long-term climate researcher at Columbia University, saidUseful science. “
Considering practicality, the main author founded a public welfare company Cloud to Street, which created an open Global Flood Database This can help countries, communities, and companies identify and resolve sources of risk.
Sobel, who was not involved in the study, said: “This is the most advanced attempt to understand flood risk trends by combining satellite flood observations, climate model predictions, and population estimates, and its conclusions are convincing.”
significance
It is hoped that this study can clearly point out that although reducing the emissions of the earth’s heating is essential to limit the worst-case scenario of climate hazards, it should not distract people from emergencies. And largely unsatisfied, Responsibility to reduce risks on the ground, especially for the most vulnerable communities marginalized by poverty or prejudice.
In an email exchange, Tellman made this observation (some shorthand cleanup):
“This database and analysis show that no matter how the climate changes, we have seen very big changes in the population newly settled in places that have been flooded recently. This is not a real climate issue. Obviously, our own governance, There is a problem in the social, economic, and political system, which is the failure to purchase houses after the flood, establish strict zoning, or provide public housing for people who have no choice. Although climate change clearly exacerbates this problem, this flood exposure problem It’s already deeply rooted.”
In an email sent to me and other reporters, Terman said she hopes that the survey results and database will inspire developed countries to better target adaptation funds and capabilities where they are most needed.She pointed out a few examples of discordance Reported adaptation funds And compare it with their findings. This is an:
“The Central African Republic received only US$10 million in adaptation funds-which means 106 countries have received more money!” Terman wrote. “However, our data shows that this country has the highest expected increase in the proportion of the population affected by floods (expected to increase as high as 87%!). Its recent flood exposure has also increased-from 2000 to 2015 satellite data That’s an increase of 76%.”
