In 2006, Westinghouse Electric stated that it could build an AP1000 reactor US$1.4 billion, Which is 10 times lower than Vogtle’s current estimate.
The Watts Bar 2 reactor in Tennessee started operation in 2016. 43 years after construction. When construction was resumed after a long-term interruption in 2008, the cost of completing the reactor was estimated at 2.5 billion U.S. dollars, but the final completion cost was US$4.7 billion.
The reversal of the U.S. nuclear renaissance
The reactor launched by the United States was Watts Bar 1, which was completed 20 years ago (1996) 23 years construction periodTherefore, Watts Bar 1 and 2 are the only power reactor start-ups in the United States in the past 25 years.
In 2021, TVA abandoned The unfinished Bellefonte nuclear power plant in Alabama, 47 years after construction began, is estimated to cost $5.8 billion.
In the past 25 years, the United States has no other power reactor construction projects other than the above-mentioned projects.
Many other reactor projects were abandoned before construction began, some of which cost hundreds of millions of dollars. In the past ten years, 12 reactors have been permanently shut down, and many more are being shut down.
Western Europe
The only reactor construction project in France is an EPR reactor in Flamanville.Currently Cost estimate 19.1 billion euros is 5.8 times the original estimate.
The Flamenville reactor is 10 years later than originally planned.
The UK’s only current reactor construction project includes two EPR reactors under construction at Hinckley Point. In the late 2000s, Estimated construction cost An EPR reactor in the UK is £2 billion.
This Current cost estimate The cost of the two EPR reactors at Hinkley Point was £2.2-23 billion, more than five times the original estimate.
In 2007, EDF Brag The British will use electricity from the Hinkley Point EPR reactor to cook their Christmas turkey in 2017, but construction will not begin until 2018.
Is China a beacon of nuclear power?
Finland is building an EPR reactor (Olkiluoto-3).This Current cost estimate About 11 billion euros is 3.7 times the original estimate. Olkiluoto-3 is 13 years later than originally planned.
Nuclear power is growing in some countries, but only barely.China is said to be the highlight of the industry, but nuclear energy has grown moderately-on average 2.1 Reactor construction starts every year In the past ten years.
In addition, compared with renewable energy, China’s nuclear power growth is negligible—compared to 2020, an increase of 2 gigawatts (GW) of installed nuclear power capacity in 2020 135 GW of renewable energy.
Only 3 reactors started construction Russia In the ten years from 2011 to 2020, only four India.
Nuclear and renewable energy costs
Western Europe and the United States provide the most compelling example of a more general nuclear power problem: existing alone in energy, it becomes more expensive over time, or in other words, it has Negative learn curve.
Nuclear power is much more expensive than renewable energy, and the gap is widening every year. Lazard October 2021 Report The levelized cost of electricity gives these figures (USD/MWh (MWh))
Nuclear 131-204
Wind-Onshore 26-50
Solar Photovoltaics-Rooftop House 147-221
Solar Photovoltaics-Rooftop Commercial and Industrial 67-180
Solar Photovoltaics-Community 59-91
Solar PV-Crystal Utility Scale 30-41
Solar photovoltaic-thin film practical scale 28-37
Solar thermal tower with storage 126-156
Geothermal 56-93
The cost of nuclear power is comparable to that of rooftop residential solar photovoltaic, but the latter does not require a large amount of downstream costs, such as transmission costs for power plants.
Capital cost comparison
Lazards provided these capital cost comparisons in its October 2021 Report (USD per kilowatt):
Nuclear 7800-12800
Wind-Onshore 1025-1350
Solar Photovoltaics-Rooftop House 2475-2850
Solar Photovoltaics-Rooftop Commercial and Industrial 1400-2850
Solar Photovoltaics-Community 1200-1450
Solar photovoltaic-crystal utility scale 800-950
Solar photovoltaic-thin film practical scale 800-950
Solar thermal tower with storage 6000-9090
Geothermal 4325-5575
In 2020, a A record 256 GW of renewable energy capacity Compared with a net increase of 0.4 GW of nuclear power installed capacity (and a 3.9% drop in nuclear power generation), it is added to the world’s power grid.
This year will be another record year for renewable energy 290 GW Since installation, nuclear power has Flat Again, five reactor startups matched five permanent shutdowns.
Small modular reactor
The Small Modular Reactor (SMR) has been vigorously promoted, but there are few construction projects and have been exhibited Catastrophic cost overruns and multi-year delays.
It should be pointed out that none of the items discussed below meet the definition of “modularity” for batch factory production of reactor components, which may reduce costs.
Using this definition, SMR has never been built, and no country, company, or public utility is building the infrastructure for SMR.
In 2004, when CAREM SMR A generationn Argentina Argentine Bariloche Atomic Center in the planning stage estimated The cost of a 300 MW integrated power plant is US$1 billion per GW (while acknowledging that achieving such a cost would be a “very difficult task”).
now Cost estimate Because the CAREM reactor is an incredible 2 USD3.4 Billion / GW (7 USD50 million / 32 MW). This is a lot of money for a reactor with the capacity of two large wind turbines. The project is seven years behind schedule, and the cost may increase further.
Russia’s floating factory
Russia’s floating nuclear power plant (There are two 35 MW reactors) is said to be the only SMR in operation in the world (although it does not meet the “modular” definition of mass factory production).
This Construction costs increased six times From 6 billion rubles to 37 billion rubles (502 million US dollars).
According to the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD, the electricity generated by the Russian floating power plant The cost is estimated to be 200 USD/MWh, The cost is high due to the large number of staffing, high fuel costs, and the resources required to maintain barges and coastal infrastructure.
The cost of electricity produced by Russian plants exceeds the cost of large reactors (US$131-204), although SMR is being promoted as a solution to the high cost of large nuclear power plants.
Climate solution?
SMR is being promoted as an important potential contributor to climate change mitigation, but the main purpose of the Russian factory is to Fossil fuel mining Do business in the Arctic.
A 2016 Report Said that the estimated construction cost of the 210 MW high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) in China is about 5 billion US dollars/GW, which is about twice the initial cost estimate, and Increased costs Rising material and component costs, labor costs, and project delays.
World Nuclear Association state The cost is USD 6 billion/GW.
These numbers are 2-3 times higher Than the US$2 billion/GW estimated by researchers at Tsinghua University in a 2009 paper.
According to reports, China plans to upgrade the HTGR design to 655 MW, but the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University predicts that the cost of 655 MW HTGR will be 15-20% higher The cost is higher than the traditional 600 MW pressurized water reactor.
HTGR plan was cancelled
The internet Report In 2020, China’s National Nuclear Power Technology Corporation abandoned its plan to manufacture 20 high-temperature gas-cooled reactor units after the levelized electricity cost estimate rose to a higher than conventional level. Pressurized water reactor For example, the Hualong No. 1 in China.
Similarly, the World Nuclear Association state The plan to build 18 additional high-temperature gas-cooled reactors at the same location as the demonstration plant has been “abandoned.”
In addition to the CAREM reactor in Argentina and the HTGR in China, the World Nuclear Association List Just two other SMR construction projects.
July 2021, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) New Energy Group Company Construction 125 MW pressurized water reactor ACP100.
According to CNN, Construction cost The cost per kilowatt will be twice that of a large reactor, and the levelized cost of electricity will be 50% higher than that of a large reactor.
Fast pile
In June 2021, Russia began construction of a 300 MW demonstration lead-cooled BREST fast reactor.
In 2012, the Estimated cost The cost of the reactor and related facilities is 42 billion rubles; now estimate It is 100 billion rubles (1.36 billion U.S. dollars).
There is much to be said about the issue of proliferation SMR in the “planning” stage, And accompanying Hype.
E.g. the most recent Review It is claimed that more than 30 different “advanced” reactor designs are being demonstrated worldwide.
In fact, very few people can go beyond the planning stage, and very few people will.Private sector funding has rare Taxpayers’ funds are generally far below the funds required for SMR construction projects.
subsidy
Large taxpayer subsidies may get some items, such as New scale Project in the U.S. or Rolls Royce The British medium-sized reactor project has entered the construction phase.
Or they may join the growing list of obsolete SMR projects:
* French government abandoned The 100-200 MW ASTRID demonstration fast reactor planned for 2019.
* Babcock and Wilcox abandoned Despite receiving US$111 million in government funding, its Generation mPower SMR project in the United States still exists.
* Transatomic energy give up In 2018, in the development of its molten salt reactor.
* Central American Energy give up After failing to obtain legislation requiring taxpayers to provide part of the funding for construction costs, the company established an SMR program in Iowa in 2013.
* TerraPower abandoned As the Trump administration restricts nuclear trade with China, it plans to build a prototype fast neutron reactor in China.
* British government abandoned Considerations for the “integrated fast reactor” used for plutonium disposal in 2019 and American government The same thing was done in 2015.
Hype
So we have a history of lose Small reactor project.
As well as some recent construction projects, most of them are facing major cost overruns and years of delays.
And the possibility of a small number of SMR construction projects in the next ten years.
Obviously, the hype surrounding SMR lacks reason.
In addition, the SMR project and Nuclear weapons proliferation, And in SMR and Fossil fuel mining.
Hype cycle
Dr. Mark Cooper connect The current SMR hype and the hype surrounding the “nuclear revival” in the late 2000s:
“The vendors and academic institutions who are most keen to promote the early and extremely optimistic cost estimates of the’nuclear revival’ are the same entities that are now making extremely optimistic cost estimates for the next nuclear technology. We are now in the middle of the SMR hype cycle.
* The supplier provides low-cost estimates.
* Proponents provided theoretical explanations on why the new nuclear technology is cost-competitive.
* The government authorities then support the estimate by funding research by friendly scholars. “
The future is renewable, not radioactive
Fans hope that the cost competitiveness of nuclear power will increase, but it is likely to continue to deteriorate.
Some nuclear enthusiasts support carbon pricing. This will improve the economics of nuclear power relative to fossil fuels.
But carbon pricing will not increase the competitiveness of nuclear power relative to renewable energy.
This author
Dr. Jim Green is a national nuclear activist Friends of the Earth Australia And author or New report Regarding the economic crisis of nuclear power.
