A polling expert who predicted a former president Donald TrumpCalifornia voters who won the 2016 election on Wednesday expressed their desire to stay as governor Gavin Newson In the September 14 removal vote, he was “significantly ahead” than those who wished to remove him.
If more than 50% of voters choose to remove him, Newsom is a Democrat, and his first term as governor of California may end early. But Robert Cahaly, a pollster for the Atlanta polling firm Trafalgar Group Believe that Trump will win in 2016 And most other pollsters predict Hillary Clinton The victory shows that California voters may be inclined to Newsom.
Cahaly talked about the recall election Twitter After the new version is released Trafalgar Group Poll, 1,088 possible voters were surveyed between August 26 and 29, with an error rate of 2.98%. 52% of possible voters said they want Newsom to stay, while 44.4% said they want him to be recalled. Another 3.7% of respondents told the polling agency that they have not yet decided.
Approximately 48% of respondents are Democratic Party, Nearly 26% are RepublicansAccording to the results of public opinion surveys, the rest are either third-party voters or have no party affiliation. These numbers are close to the percentage of registered Democratic and Republican voters in California, where there are almost twice as many Democrats as registered Republicans.
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“#CARecall —— @加文新森 The remaining governors have a significant lead,” Kahali wrote in a tweet about the poll results on Wednesday morning.
Cahaly’s tweets continue to identify conservative radio host Larry Elder as the main recall candidate in the Trafalgar Group poll. Elder is a Republican, he announced his campaign in July, Leading in most polls This has been done since state election officials published the certified list of 46 candidates who were eligible to participate in the recall ballot.
In a Trafalgar Group poll, when potential voters were asked which candidate they would choose to replace Newsom if the governor was removed, Elder’s approval rating was 29.2%.The candidate who won the second place is Kevin Pafrath, A Democrat, his YouTube username is “Meet Kevin”. Pafrat, who was listed as a financial educator and analyst on the ballot for removal, was one of the nine Democrats who appeared on the ballot.
In addition to Elder, 23 other Republicans were also on the ballot.Among these conservative candidates, the former mayor of San Diego Kevin Faulkner Tied with businessman John Cox in the Trafalgar Group poll, each candidate had a 4.1% voter turnout among possible voters. TV personality Caitlyn Jenner (Caitlyn Jenner) has a slightly higher approval rating than former Republican Representative Doug Ose, at 1.1%. Although Ose appeared on the ballot, he stopped campaigning last month after a heart attack and has since supported state legislator Kevin Kiley (Kevin Kiley) who did not appear in the Trafalgar Group poll.
Although Elder ranks among the top recall candidates listed by the Trafalgar Group, public opinion polls show that nearly 40% of respondents either prefer another candidate to replace Newsom or have yet to decide.
Although earlier polls conducted in July and August showed that voters appeared to be divided on the issue of Newsom’s recall, the Trafalgar Group’s poll in late August and SurveyUSA’s published earlier this week The results of a survey showed that the results in favor of Newsom. Another recent poll conducted by Change Research found that 57% Of voters want Newsom to remain in power.
Newsom campaign spokesperson spoke in a Change Research poll last week Tell Weekly newspaper Democratic voters “should not get a trace of comfort from the results.”
“There is no precedent for this election, and no one has a crystal ball,” said Nathan Click, the communications director of Newsom’s campaign.
Weekly newspaper Contact Newsom’s campaign for comments and will update this story based on any response.
