The climate model was very popular last year.
As Knowledge of climate sensitivity and melting of polar ice-rate evolves, obviously The sea level is rising faster than previously imagined – meaning is More frequent and destructive storms, storm surges, heavy precipitation, and flooding.
with Extreme eventsecond Rare today Become specification Future, existing Risk mitigation measures Become more and more Outdated. The corollary of this analysis is Existing and planned coastal and inland nuclear facilities Will face major risks.
coastal
In other words, nuclear energy’s sustainable electricity proposition is carried out in a larger context-coastal and inland nuclear energy will become one of the first and most important victims of increased climate impact.
As the world heating, The ice stored in the poles and glaciers melted, and the sea level rose.
With arNearest NASA Research based on 25 years of satellite dataFound gYe Hai——The level rise has been accelerating rather than rising steadily, tThe Arctic melted so fast that‘Now 20% Thinner than ten years ago, weakening the main source of the planet’s coolingG. [1]
At the same time, sSatellite data shows Greenland IThis secondheet lost a record amount of ice in 2019 —— Equivalent to one million tons per minute.
With tThe climate crisis has caused the Arctic to heat up at twice the rate of low-latitude regions, and the ice sheet is right now The largest single contributor to the ocean——Level rises, with Already endangered the coast And coastal population. [2]
model
Since the most recent research report, this is even more worrying New warning signs point to the Midwest of the Greenland Ice Sheet Is going through A critical transition.
Due to rising temperatures, the instability of the ice sheet has begun, and the melting process may escalate, A substantial increaseing Global sea levels are rising.
In other words, a large part of the Greenland ice sheet is on the verge of a tipping point, after which accelerated melting will be inevitable. [3]
And Antarctica-where is the meterMore than half of the freshwater resources on the earth are hold, representativeing So far, the largest potential source of global sea level rise under future warming conditions—— Also threatened– Probably it’s Long-term sea level contribution will Much more than other sources. [4]
and soThe polar ice cap is The melting rate is 6 times that of the 1990s, and the high melting rate corresponds to the global worst-case model heating Developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). [5]
put up
This means wNo Sweeping curbs To carbon dioxide Greenhouse gas emissions, the earth will see very much Sea level rises significantly-lEve, Causes annual coastal and inland flooding. [6]
This resonates with rResearch commissioned by Delta The program is Dutch delta Ccome in, responsible for Protect the Netherlands from floods and the sea——Level change, This shows that the sea-grade rise The North Sea may accelerate sharply from 2050 —— withIn the EU Should prepare for its ocean, Estuary The tidal river will rise 2 meters in the next 80 years. [7]
Perhaps disturbingly, the Delta report addedsecond The faster the Antarctic ice sheet meltsI do not haveNot yet includedwith The prediction of the program.
resistanceRecently, peer-reviewed published scientific data show that sea level rises faster and greater, and storms are faster, more intense, and more destructive, Storm surge, Coastal and inland floods.
So disturbingly reflect The vast majority of nuclei reactor Start operation before global heating is considered in design or construction.
power
with 41% of All nuclear power plant worldwide Operatinging in coastal, nuclear may Prove an important risk. [8]
Tonhe short term The impact of average sea level rise-lCoastal area nuclear Under extreme storm conditions, when strong winds and low air pressure bring local effects, the device will be most profoundly feltseconded increase in the sea——Level is called ‘Storm surge‘.
Simultaneously, Imainland nuclear Plant factorelectronic Growing wildfire, Occasional floods alternate with low river flows and increase Water temperature -The latter significantly affects the cooling capacity of the reactor, thereby affecting the survivability.
And because Climate change will affect nuclear power plants earlier and more severely than industry, government or regulatory agencies may Expected, Efforts to mitigate global heating risks will mean Significantly increased costs any nuclear put up with surgery,[9] on site nuclear Waste inventory And decommission. [10]
A key question is about 516 million people Global live broadcast Within fifty miles (80 kilometers) of at least one operating nuclear power plant, and 20 million live Within ten miles (16 kilometers).
shut down
These communities Face health and safety risks from climate change-Inducing radiation pollution release events. [11]
Due to At least 100 nuclear power plants already Built just a few meters from the sea——grade,no doubt nNuclear power plant is, without any exaggeration, in front of——Climate change line Risk-and not a good way. [12]
FOr for example, U.S. Nuclear resistanceThe supervisory committee concludessecond The vast majority of them Nuclear facility already have Experienced flood disaster Their design-according to. [13]
And one recent yousecond Army War College The report states Nuclear power facilities Yes in ‘high risk‘ Temporarily or permanently closed due to climate threat —— with 60% U.S. nuclear capabilities now Vulnerable to sea——Rising water levels, severe storms and cool down Water shortages. [14]
evidence
The key “way to take” in all of this is nuclear’s low-carbon power USP is in a larger context-nuclear energy will be one of the first and most important victims of increased climate impact.
TonHThe unfortunate reality is that nuclear energy is far from helping solve our common climate problem. will Add to it. In other words, reviewing published climate impact data that has been recently peer-reviewed This means a substantial reassessment of the role of nuclear energy in net zero emissions.
In practice, this Means that modelsecond The impact of seasonal, ten-year, and future climate change on nuclear infrastructure must be considered, including rapidly changing extreme events, sudden interactions, and feedback.
CComprehensive nuclear industry and Supervision As evidence on climate impacts in basic science develops, risk assessments based on “all scenarios” scenarios must be published and regularly updated.
give up
This Must include The cost of any necessary mitigation measures and A series of emergency plans for the rapid occurrence of weather-driven severe weather.
The unfortunate fact is ris for Nuclear facility Sea level rise and extreme weather events will not Yes Linear.
There Will exceed the threshold of existing natural and artificial obstacles As Storm surge And precipitation intensity is getting bigger and bigger erosion Coastal and inland Nuclear infrastructure flood protection.
this means Is notClear industry and regulation Efforts to mitigate climate risks will involve very much Significantly increased costs Any core Construction, operation, waste management, decommissioning -Then Relocation or abandonment.
This author
Dr. Paul Dorfman is a scholar of the college Institute of Energy, University College London; University College London, also the founder and chairman of the college Nuclear Consulting Group.
notes
[1] NASA (2018): New research finds that sea level rise is accelerating, NASA, February 2018. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating
[2] Sasgen I., Wouters B., Gardner AS, Wait. (2020): Greenland’s ice is losing rapidly, and the ice loss detected by GRACE-FO satellite hit a record high in 2019. Community Earth Environment 1, 8 (2020 year). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0010-1
[3] Boers N. Ripdal M. (2021): Severe slowdown indicates that the western Greenland ice sheet is approaching a tipping point, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021. https://www.pnas.org/content/118/21/e2024192118
[4] Garbe J., Albrecht T., Levermann A., Wait. (2020): The lag of the Antarctic ice sheet, 538 | Nature | Vol. 585, September 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5.epdf
[5] There is F., Island B, Mazeen, B., Wait. (2019 year): Sea level rise and its impact on low-lying islands, coasts and communities.In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. et al. (eds.)]. https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/
[6] Shepherd A., Ivans., Lignot, E., Smith, Ben Wait. (2020). Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from 1992 to 2018, natural. 579 (7798): 233–239. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1855-2
[7] Leake J. (2020): Do you think the flood is bad now? Dutch experts warn that Britain is facing a sea level rise of 6 feet, The Times, February 2020. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/think-the-flooding-is-bad-now-britain-faces-6ft-rise-in-sea-level-warns-dutch-expert-gl6mlvvqq
[8] Nunez. (2015): As sea level rises, are coastal nuclear power plants ready?Some low-lying plants face a watery future, but Fukushima’s legacy is spurring action, National Geographic. 2015. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2015/12/151215-as-sea-levels-rise-are-coastal-nuclear-plants-ready/
[9] At last N. & Perkins J. (2011): Climate Change, Nuclear Power and Adaptation-Mitigating the Dilemma, Energy Policy, Volume 39, Issue 1, Pages 318-333. In January 2011, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421510007329
[10] Jenkins.J., Alvarez., & Jordan.Meter. (2020): Unmanaged climate risks of spent fuel from nuclear power plants in the United States: The case of sea level rise, Energy Policy, Vol. 137, February 2020. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421519306937#
[11] Jordan.Meter., Sidici A., Kakenmaster W., & Mount A.C. (2019): Climate Vulnerability of Global Nuclear Power, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Global Environmental Politics, Volume 19, Issue 4, Page 3-13, November 2019.
https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/glep_a_00527
[12] Vidal J. (2018): Are coastal nuclear power plants ready to deal with sea level rise? Yu Hai: August 2018. https://www.hakaimagazine.com/features/are-coastal-nuclear-power-plants-ready-for-sea-level-rise/
[13] Flanders S., Josh N. Wait. (2017): Insights from the post-Fukushima review, Earthquake and Flood Hazards at U.S. Operating Nuclear Power Plant Sites, Transaction, SMiRT-24 BEXCO, Busan, South Korea-August 20-25, 2017 Part VII.
[14] U.S. Army War College (2019): The impact of climate change United States Army, 2019. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf
