Why is COVID-19 down in the UK?All the theories behind the surprising drop

For more than a week, the UK has been reporting a drop in daily COVID-19 cases. But experts are not sure why or if there are even fewer deadly viruses circulating in the UK.

According to data from the British government, the daily number of new cases on July 17 reached nearly 55,000, and then suddenly dropped below 25,000 on August 1. These figures are surprising, especially considering the recent relaxation of blockade restrictions on July 19.

A theory? It may be Euro2020 and the way sports fans influence the spread of infection.

Maria Van Kerkhove, head of technology at the World Health Organization, stated that England’s participation in the Euro2020 football final on July 11 is likely to be a key driver of transmission, calling it “destructive” in a tweet.

The 60,000 fans gathered at Wembley Stadium have all been vaccinated, but there is no such requirement for fans gathered in bars, friends’ homes and other places across the country.

Dr. John Edmunds, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, supports the theory that the large number of fans gathered to watch the final on July 11 can explain the dramatic increase in cases in mid-July. Then, the fans discovered that they had been exposed to COVID-19 during the game, followed by an extensive period of self-isolation, which would explain the sharp drop in new cases.

“This round of self-isolation is happening all over the country at the same time, and it seems that the number of cases has decreased,” Edmonds said. He also believes that summer vacation will help reduce the number of people.

“Students no longer take the virus home after they have picked up the virus in class. This may now help control the number of cases, and it is likely to do so throughout the summer,” he added.

Some scientists wonder whether the UK might be close to the level of “herd immunity” or endemic disease. Some scientists believe that there are fewer tests being conducted.

The Delta variant hits young people particularly hard-these young people go to school and are required to be tested regularly in these schools. Most students are now on summer vacation, and fewer young people are taking exams and getting positive results.

“Young people are unlikely to be tested, [when not required] Especially if this means isolation and staying at home, then many people may ignore a runny nose, cough or cold,” said Lavendragupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the Cambridge Institute of Immunology and Infectious Disease Treatment.

Another popular explanation for the sudden and unexpected drop in cases is that it did not really happen. This may just be a flaw or delay in the way we measure the ebb and flow of the disease.

The sharp decline in daily reports of new cases in the UK has not been fully supported by other important methods of tracking the disease. According to reports, British Broadcasting Corporation, From several key ways to track COVID-19 in the UK, such as test subject data randomly selected from the National Bureau of Statistics, self-reported data from the Covid Research app, hospital statistics or tests at Imperial College London (no deadline Report on Friday), none of the figures agree.

One thing that many scientists seem to agree on is the need to be cautious when interpreting surprising results.

Professor Tim Spector of King’s College London said: “The rate of decline is much faster than what we have seen in previous waves.” “Even after a total blockade of the country, the accuracy of official statistics is impressive. Doubt.”

Weekly newspaper Contact the UK Department of Health for comments.