1.5°C is dead, long live 1.5°C

“We are sinking, but everyone else is sinking. “This is a powerful word from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tuvalu, a Pacific island country The cruel impact of the climate crisis. I left the Glasgow climate summit with a similar pessimism, which was called the earth’s last hope for preventing global warming. It may be too early to judge Cop26: the only acceptable measure is a sharp decline in global carbon emissions until 2030.Instead, what we see is Emissions rebounded significantly Since the crash caused by the 2020 pandemic, there is little sign of abating next year.

The scale of future tasks is huge.At the current level, the amount of carbon we can safely emit (our ‘Carbon budget’) will only last for another eight years globally, give us a Possibility of restricting global heating is one in half A safety level of 1.5°C is reached. Now, these numbers are an attempt to predict the future, so there is a certain degree of uncertainty-but how long our carbon budget will last will only vary in a few short years (and may be exhausted sooner than we expected ). In order to stay within a safe range, we need to reduce India’s emissions on a global scale every year for the next ten years. Such efforts are unparalleled in history.

But did our leaders respond accordingly? the answer is negative.The bad promises made at the summit, assuming they will be supported by policies and funding (not currently available) will still Bring us to 2.4°C. Extreme weather events that rose by just 1.1 degrees have claimed thousands of lives and displaced many more While costing billions of pounds. The temperature will rise by 2 degrees Far away. However, countries like Australia, Japan, and the United States Continue to destroy The basic principles of these negotiations are: the moral responsibility of the rich countries is to reduce emissions as quickly as possible, while at the same time providing funding for the clean transition of developing countries.This historical responsibility is under discussion Compensation paid to the Global South for the effects of the climate collapse (called ‘Lost and damaged’) Was postponed again.

You don’t have to be a gambler to know that our odds are high, and the prospect of raising the global temperature to 1.5°C is actually dead. This is not a fatalistic conclusion-it does not mean that we should abandon attempts to change our fossil fuel economy in order to find individual solutions. Our own politicians reviewed the words of Cop26, ‘Keep 1.5 alive’ or open ‘“Life support” is misleading at best, and dangerous at worst. It sells a lie to the public that empty promises about net zero emissions and business-as-usual methods will enable us to weather the storm. The reality is that we have what we have. Economic system and dependence Technical repair We will never provide justice-oriented solutions to crises.What they do best is Socialization risks and privatization profitsAfter Cop26, this result was once again too predictable, where the fossil fuel industry Has the largest delegation, And once again called on big companies and private markets to save us from the chaos they caused.

Perhaps a more appropriate statement is: ‘1.5°C is dead. 1.5°C’ Long live. I mean, although the goal of 1.5°C is actually out of reach, its symbolic meaning should persist and stimulate a stronger public movement around it. In the next few years, the loss of this goal will become more obvious, but it should force us to concentrate this loss and the compensation that should be followed in our mobilization and requirements. Compensation should not only flow from the global north to the south, but also from fossil fuel companies and major polluters to communities affected by climate disasters, from the rich to the poor.

The Climate Youth Movement understands this intuitively and deeply. They understand that this battle is not only about carbon, but about re-planning our economy to eliminate the root causes of carbon emissions. The multiple crises we face. Indeed, every step we take back from climate chaos, while potentially saving the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Many in power, including President Cop26, This argument has been deployed Claims to have made progress in these negotiations.But this logic is letting the government and polluters get away with it, throwing us into an uncertain situation, piecemeal measures and promises. Overshoot scene It’s not worth what they write on paper.

The Glasgow Climate Convention now promises that countries will increase their climate targets every year instead of every five years. This is good news and provides an opportunity for the global climate movement to exert greater political pressure. This may also be an opportunity to draw motivation from losing this goal, public participation And push the debate to rewrite the rules of our extractive economic system and the Green New Deal.

Simon Dawson/ 10 Downing Street (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)