Sam Doveri Versterbye wrote that when the Taliban might take over Afghanistan, the risk could not be greater for Uzbek President Mirziyoyev, who hosted the Central-South Asia Connectivity Conference in Tashkent from July 15 to 16.
Sam Doveri Versterbye is the managing director of the company European Neighborhood Council.
The Tashkent high-level meeting gathered impressive foreign dignitaries, including more than 20 foreign ministers. They are also concerned about the security situation in Afghanistan and surrounding areas.
The message from Josep Borrell, the EU’s senior representative and vice president, is one of regional integration and infrastructure investment.
The European Investment Bank, in cooperation with other international financial institutions, will continue to support Central Asian connectivity from east to west and north to south.
Based on the successful model of EU regional integration, the Central Asian Republics agree that regional unification will serve their collective interests. For Uzbekistan and its neighbors, this is in stark contrast to policies prior to 2016, which are usually guided by neighboring countries’ disputes over hydropower, energy, and borders.
The new urgency of establishing better North-South connectivity is closely related to Afghanistan’s changing environment and the unpredictability of the potential Taliban government. According to a retired diplomat at the summit: “The Taliban hope to profit from the trade between Central Asia and Pakistan.
“They will receive energy transit fees and increase trade transit. This only works if the infrastructure is developed and extensive. If we don’t invest in connecting the region, we can only achieve stability and peace through commerce. Taliban or no Taliban: profit Is the easiest way to promote cooperation”.
The main speaker of the event was President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan. There are rumors that he will be captured by the Taliban, and many people have quietly speculated that he intends to return to his country (or not to return to China!) after the Tashkent summit.
Although these rumors have proven to be exaggerations, they do indicate that there is uncertainty about the future of Afghanistan and its government. The recent bomb blasts and the statement by General Mark A. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, have further deepened people’s suspicions.
Ghani’s speech was followed by Pakistan’s charming prime minister and former cricketer Imran Khan. Despite the exchange of public and critical comments on the historical relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan, both leaders agreed on the need for cooperation and infrastructure construction.
These exchanges seem to be unplanned, revealing subtle efforts to build trust and improve relationships in divided regions. Despite the challenges, a significant difference in the region by 2021 is the increase in the level of funding for digital and technological infrastructure in the region under international development loans and bilateral assistance from countries.
Business and regulatory invitees at the summit confirmed that “connectivity is at the core of ensuring trade, security and a more stable Afghanistan”. Uzbekistan—a dual landlocked country—relied on this concept to succeed with the support of the European Union.
Together with other regional stakeholders, they have a common vested interest in promoting peaceful integration and regional trade to curb radicalization, forced migration and conflict risks. Based on the idea of European integration, the summit and its host Mirzoyoyev believe that investment can ensure that goods are better from east to west, but also from north to south.
It will allow cargo from Europe, Turkey, Russia and Central Asia to reach the Chabahar port in Iran or the Guani and Karachi ports in Pakistan. India’s 1.3 billion consumer market is the key to this equation, but so is Pakistan’s 220 million population.
The idea of connecting India and Pakistan by rail and road has become a reality, and goods are transported from Afghanistan and Pakistan to India through the Lahore connection. Currently, Pakistan Customs continues to ban the shipment of Indian products to Central Asia, but the two sides are negotiating to improve this business connection, as both parties will benefit from the growth of trade.
The completion of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline (TAPI) is back on the agenda, and negotiations with Taliban members on further investment in infrastructure risks and high-level discussions are ongoing.
In response to this, the European Union is actively carrying out high-level brokerage diplomacy, and at the same time actively funding new infrastructure projects to support regional integration. To date, it has provided more than 60 billion euros of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the region.
Between 2014 and 2020, the European Union allocated more than 2.5 billion euros in Afghanistan and Central Asia alone, and provided financial support through loans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as well as national infrastructure projects from the European Union and international and regional stakeholders.
The EU has been adding its own conditions for connectivity: better working conditions, more attention to social inequality, strengthening the rule of law, fighting corruption, and investing in renewable infrastructure. The reason remains that it is best to avoid conflicts through poverty reduction, courts and litigation.
Support multiple large-scale infrastructure projects through bilateral and multilateral financing, including road, rail and port infrastructure across Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Examples include optimized financial services and agribusiness, as well as infrastructure and energy processing.
At the end of the summit, a question remained: Will the Taliban play? In February of this year, their official delegation expressed support for regional interconnection projects. Most summit participants agreed with this view, saying that the Taliban is a rational actor persuaded by interests.
However, their 2016 damage to the power grid in Baghland Province still serves as a reminder of how utilities were weaponized during the civil war. As a spokesperson for the World Bank who did not want to be named, pointed out to me during the summit:
“Power politics will always exist. And it is impossible to know exactly how the Taliban wind will swing every day. But we can be sure that the region needs more digital infrastructure, lower informal trade barriers, and collective infrastructure investment efforts. “.
Intra-regional trade is about 4-5%, and estimates of improvement in trade remain positive. A Pakistani logistics entrepreneur who participated in the summit said that North-South interconnection has a certain scope and business needs.
Based on first-hand experience, he said: “The International Road Federation and its sealing system ensure that our containers arrive at an agreed price without opening them. For us, this means predictability and lower risk. And more business. Corruption is like gangrene, but with better cross-border coordination, we can slowly eliminate this situation and create regional growth.”
