Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Refugee extortion is always effective: a letter from Istanbul


SecondThe motto in football is: Never change a winning team.This is a tactic ErdoganThose who played professional football when they were young, not only knew it, but also used it. As long as he is on the trajectory of victory, he will not change anything, nor will he change the people around him. This maxim also applies to Erdogan’s strategy. He will not give up tactics that can lead him to victory. If he had to deal with a similar situation next time, he would use well-known and tried-and-tested strategies. In this kind of tactical game, the West can also accept it, and the losers have hardly changed. Has it become as complicated as the offside rule? I’ll explain it later, don’t worry. To do this, I must briefly talk about what ground football here is like. ..

Column about the Turkish edition
Click to read the article in Turkish

Erdogan is currently experiencing the most difficult days of his reign. He came to power in 2002 after succeeding the coalition government that was shaken by the economic crisis and caused Turkey to fall into a more serious economic crisis in the next two decades. I don’t want to confuse you with a lot of economic data. If I say that the number of company bankruptcies has increased by 116% in the past twelve months, it is enough. The entire society—everyone except the entrepreneurs outside Erdogan—is going through difficult times. But this crisis hit Erdogan’s loyal lower class and the middle class most severely. Erdogan watched as his foundation disappeared due to the crisis, and tried to align his voters by creating illusory enemies, using nationalist and Islamic discourse, or reinforcing polarized speech. However, despite his efforts, he did not succeed in preventing the contraction.


Bilante Mumei
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Photo: Private


Erdogan knew that given this situation, he would not be able to win the upcoming elections in 2023. There is no doubt that he also knows that there is almost nothing to win. It seems impossible to increase his voice potential. In the case that he can’t win, he is now doing everything possible to make the game lose. To this end, he is doing everything possible to split the electoral coalition of the opposition.So he tried to get the Kurds, they are part of the opposition group Local election Received external support in 2019. At that time Erdogan suspended the peace process with the PKK and formed an alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP. Now he has visited the symbolic Kurdish city of Diyarbakir. As if he did not end the peace process, he used the expression “Kurdish issue” when referring to Diyarbakir’s visit. This was his first signal for the appeasement process: “What we said in 2005, This is where we are now.”



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