he National Health Service Waiting list is on UK A new report warns that it may increase to 14 million by the fall of next year, and it will continue to increase.
If millions of patients who did not receive care during the pandemic return to health services for treatment, the number of people on the waiting list may exceed the number of people receiving treatment. Institute of Finance (IFS) said.
The research organization has performed modelling to show the potential scale of future waiting list challenges.
Last month, the Minister of Health Sajid Javid It warned that England’s NHS waiting list could soar to 13 million.
In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph a few weeks after being appointed to the position, Mr. Javid said that “the most shocking thing to me” was “when I was told that the waiting list will get worse before it improves.”
He said: “Hearing the number of 13 million, it definitely makes me focus. This will be one of the first tasks I have to deal with, because we can’t have it.”
IFS warned that if most of the approximately 7 million so-called “missing” patients return to medical institutions for treatment next year, this number may exceed this number.
It said: “In our first case, 80% of the approximately 7 million’missing’ patients will return next year. The NHS will operate at 90% of its capacity in 2019 this year and next, and then 100% from 2023. Capacity operation.
“In this case, the waiting list will soar to 14 million in the fall of 2022, and then continue to climb because the number of people on the waiting list exceeds the number of people receiving treatment.”
If the NHS cannot find effective ways to improve its capabilities… then we will face a longer waiting list in the next few years, which is a real risk
IFS stated that although it is unlikely that all patients will return because some patients have died, others may have received private treatment, or in some cases choose to endure their health problems, most people may at some point Treatment is needed, especially in the reduction of virus cases and “people are more willing to seek medical care”.
It added: “Therefore, the extent and speed of these’missing’ patients coming to receive treatment is a very important’known unknown’ for health services.”
IFS uses different models for the number of patients who may return for treatment and the operational capacity of medical services. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the number of people waiting for treatment will increase to more than 9 million by 2022 and will not recover until 2025. To the pre-pandemic level.
The organization stated that compared with 2019, this result will require the NHS to increase capacity by 5% this year and next year, and then increase by 10% in 2023 and beyond.
It stated that this is equivalent to treating approximately 1.6 million additional patients annually at a potential cost of at least £2 billion.
The report pointed out: “Our scenario shows that in the long run, whether the waiting list remains high will ultimately depend on the NHS’s ability to achieve in the next few years.”
Amanda Pritchard (Amanda Pritchard), shortly after announcing her appointment as the new chief executive officer of the NHS in the UK, acknowledged that one of the pressures facing health services is to “focus on resolving the waiting time inevitably accumulated due to the Covid pandemic.”
Max Warner, IFS research economist and author of the analysis, said: “Even before the pandemic, more than 4 million people were on the NHS waiting list.
“Covid-19 will only make things worse, because millions of people missed treatment and millions more are not even on the waiting list.
“If the NHS cannot find effective ways to improve its capabilities-a challenge at the best of times, let alone after a pandemic-then we will face a longer waiting list in the next few years, which is a real risk.”
Patricia Marquis, Dean of the Royal College of Nursing, said these figures “confirm the arduous task of health care services in recovering from the pandemic.”
She said: “If the Minister of Health wants to resolve the imminent waiting list crisis, he should start by investing in labor.
“A substantial salary increase will prove its value and help retain experienced nursing staff, who cannot afford the health services when faced with this challenge.”
Labor Party Shadow Health Minister Jonathan Ashworth said: “This analysis should be a wake-up call for ministers.
“So many patients are waiting longer in pain and suffering for important treatment including cancer care, which is unacceptable. Thousands of people are waiting for more than a year to wait for surgery, some People even take long-term health risks by waiting for more than two years.
“Before the pandemic hit, years of insufficient funding and health care cuts have made our NHS waiting list swell. In light of these warnings, it is now more urgent to develop a long-term rescue plan to provide the NHS with the resources and personnel needed. In order to reduce the waiting list and reduce the waiting time for treatment.”
