After five years of civil war, the first Taliban regime took over in Kabul in 1996. The Taliban were mainly Pashtuns as they are now. They are in power under the support of the incompetent, selfless, and completely detached policies of the Western powers under the leadership of the United States. Now we see the second Taliban regime coming to Kabul with the support of the same short-sighted policy.
Their smooth diplomacy and public relations team in Doha tried to assure the Afghans that the new Taliban command seeks peace and reconciliation and will allow girls to go to school in some cases. The difference between Qatar’s soothing words and actual actions is very obvious. Herat’s girl was kicked out of school. Herat was a famous TV comedian executed in Kandahar, and the Afghan Air Force pilot was tracked and killed at home.
This First Taliban Regime Mullah Mohammed Omar’s incompetence is breathtaking-ignorance of managing the modern economy. This time we were told that it would be different. Don’t bet on this.
Don’t bet on peace either. The Ahmad Shah Massood clan murdered on the eve of 9/11 has strengthened the Panjshir Valley under the leadership of his son. The Uzbek militia of Abdul Rashid Dostum has a deep base and support on the Uzbekistan border, and they temporarily fled there.
The most pressing challenge is the humanitarian disaster of hundreds of thousands (perhaps millions) of refugees, who have almost no shelter, food and water or even less. Aid will have to be transported by land, possibly by air-but whether the Taliban will allow the opening of airports and land crossings is debatable. If they do, based on past experience, bribery and blackmail come at a price.
One of the saddest losses is pure talent and capital. Afghanistan has indeed seen the emergence of new literate and shrewd youths, with well-functioning universities and teaching hospitals, and vibrant media. With the announcement of the new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. This is a huge loss. For many years, it has been a glimmer of hope against the plunder and corruption of all the tribes of Karzai and the Ghani government. It is too easy for Western allies to condone.
The refugee crisis, implosive economic and security situation will bring about a new combination of international powers and neighboring countries-including China, Iran, Pakistan, India and Russia. The pathological civil war is a threat to all of them—just as it is to the West. The extremists, regrouped and returned people have been in the shadow of the Taliban for some time-in fact, they have never really disappeared. These include al-Qaida, Islamic State, Punjab and Kashmir militants, as well as the Uzbek Islamic Movement.
The story of Western intervention since 2001 has been one of the dysfunctions of the plan.Don’t expect too much guidance The Biden administration. The zero chaos on the ground in Kabul confuses them, and they seem to know nothing about what is happening now and what will happen next.
Robert Fox is the Defense Editor of the Evening Standard
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