Jessica Taneja wrote that after the US military and Western countries left Afghanistan, China is seeking to fill the political and security gaps in the region, and China has long been prepared for this.
Jessica Taneja is a journalist based in Delhi.
With the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the current establishment is in a downturn and cannot fill the power vacuum. The deadline for the withdrawal of US troops is getting closer, which allows China to substantially increase its activities in Afghanistan. In addition to economic and diplomatic ambitions, China also hopes to fill the political and security gaps in the region. For China, Afghanistan is a strategic source for the Dragon Kingdom to consolidate Asian power. Afghanistan, also known as the “cemetery of the empire,” has been unable to be conquered by Western forces. Now, China sees an opportunity to become a peacemaker and prevent violence from spiralling out of control. In fact, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently received nine famous Taliban representatives to discuss issues of peace and security.
Beijing’s sudden interest in the region is not surprising. Over the years, China has lobbied the Taliban and their allies to strengthen their relations. As the United States flees Afghanistan, China has a chance to get away with it and have direct contact with the Taliban. China’s trade support to countries controlled by the Taliban will give it a strong influence in the region. Afghanistan has abundant reserves of copper, coal, iron, natural gas, cobalt, mercury, gold, lithium and thorium, valued at more than US$1 trillion. China will spare no effort to pack the country into the “Belt and Road” initiative. As the Taliban focus on the reconstruction of the region, China will provide the infrastructure needed to rebuild the country, which will eventually plunge it into debt and control its main assets.
In addition to economic gains, China also has serious security problems in the region. The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwestern China has been facing a resurgence of terrorism infiltrating through the Wakhan Corridor along the Afghan border.
Chinese analysts believe that extremists and terrorist organizations will not enter their territory through the Wakhan Corridor. If the situation in Afghanistan deteriorates, they are likely to threaten China through Central Asian countries. China wants to stop all efforts that might help promote the expansion of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a Uyghur separatist organization seeking to establish an independent state. Last year, the United States removed East Timor’s label of terrorism, leaving Beijing restless and defenseless. China is worried that East Timor may have increased its logistical and financial resources, manpower, and weapons and equipment last year. In a recent meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the Taliban pledged to support China and prohibit Uyghur militants from entering Xinjiang.
Globally, China has faced criticism and punishment for forcibly detaining 1 million Uyghur Muslims in detention camps for violating human rights and interference conventions. Since both the Taliban and Pakistan have remained silent about China’s treatment of Uighur Muslims, the battle in the region has been won by half.
In addition, Afghanistan’s participation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will help China improve its regional economic mix. Borders and highways controlled by the Taliban often become risks to safe trade. By forming an alliance with a government controlled by the Taliban, China is laying the foundation for future control of important trade routes. China’s dominant position in the region will enable it to monopolize resources and control exports.
During his visits to Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Wang Yi discussed the issue of Afghanistan in detail, hoping to get the support of Central Asian countries to bring stability to this war-torn country. At the same time, some critics have described China’s participation in the reconstruction of Afghanistan as the “next empire” entering the “cemetery.” China’s strategy for dealing with countries controlled by the Taliban is to participate in economic issues that do not threaten the control of terrorist organizations. For economic prosperity, it must strengthen the security institutions in the region. Both the United States and NATO have more assets than China, and they have failed to promote peace in the region. China’s intervention will only worsen the situation.
China’s activities in Afghanistan will be supported by non-free countries and allies who have been patiently waiting to shake off Western influence in Asia, and its compromise may undermine the peace restoration process in the coming decades. In addition, China will openly use Afghanistan’s instability as an excuse to project its military power internationally for the first time in decades.
For many years, China has been isolated from the region and refused to interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs. Now, China’s “non-interference” policy seems to have taken a different turn. It will give a country obsessed with domination of the world excessive power.
