Lukas Trakimavičius believes that as the global warming and extreme weather events become more destructive and frequent, European armed forces and their capabilities will also face more and more challenges.
Lukas Trakimavičius works in the research and lessons learned department of the NATO Center of Excellence for Energy Security. He previously worked in NATO and the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own views and are provided in a personal capacity only.
Unless you have been living under the rocks for the past few weeks and months, it is hard to miss the fires, floods and heat waves that have caused millions of people around the world. However, although our daily news has well reported the impact of climate change on civilians, it has also had as severe impact on the military.
Although it is possible to talk endlessly about the military consequences of climate change, for all intents and purposes, the most important impact can be summarized in four points.
Military infrastructure at risk
Rising sea levels will threaten military installations in coastal areas. As global temperatures rise and continental ice caps and glaciers melt, more water is added to the ocean. As the temperature rises, the volume of seawater expands.In the past 100 years, the global average sea level has stand up A reduction of nearly 20 centimeters. By the end of this century, depending on the degree to which countries respect their climate commitments, it will Increase Add another 40-120 cm.
This may cause trouble for the German or Dutch navy, to name a few.High tide floods and storm surges are expected to increase Batter Naval facilities in low-lying coastal areas and damage to their infrastructure and equipment.
In order to maintain a strong deterrence and defense posture, governments will be forced to provide more resources to avoid the worst effects of rising sea levels.This means billions of euros will be required spend It involves not only infrastructure maintenance, but also coastal protection measures such as the development of dams, seawalls and surge barriers. Under special circumstances, some naval bases may even need to be relocated, putting greater pressure on the defense budget.
Instability on the southern border of Europe
Global warming will threat There may be more Middle East and North Africa (MENA) than any other region in the world. In fact, hotter temperatures mean continued heat waves, desertification and drought. More importantly, all these factors often precede the outbreak of social unrest and immigration.For example, before the beginning of the Syrian civil war, the country was pretentious Intergenerational drought has forced millions of rural farmers into urban centers such as Damascus or Aleppo, creating fertile ground for friction and dissatisfaction.
Although Bashar al-Assad’s brutal policies clearly played a leading role in triggering the Syrian civil war, factors such as water shortages, crop failures, and economic downturns will exacerbate lingering tensions and create new confrontations. no doubt.
Considering that the Middle East and North Africa region is close to Europe, it is likely that any instability there in the future will mean that the European Armed Forces need more work. In order to prevent bloodshed or large-scale refugee flows, European troops may have to intervene in some of these conflicts as defenders or builders of peace.
More disaster relief operations
As the temperature rises, there will be more destructive extreme weather events. This is because warm air can hold more water, and at warm temperatures, water evaporates faster. Therefore, places with high rainfall, such as the Balkans or Alps, will increasingly face the risk of heavy rains and deadly flash floods. At the same time, arid regions such as the Mediterranean will experience more droughts and wildfires.
This will inevitably lead to greater demand for disaster relief missions, and due to its unparalleled logistics and crisis management capabilities, the military may have to bear this burden.
Although there is nothing new about the military’s role in crisis management in times of crisis, the situation in the future may be more demanding than before. As extreme weather events become more common, defense planners must ensure that armed forces are prepared to conduct multiple large-scale disaster response operations simultaneously—while maintaining their international commitments and military preparedness for conventional threats.
The North Pole gets busy
As the Arctic ice melts, the region is likely to become a geopolitical hotspot.Under the ice and snow, there is a vast deposit Natural resources such as rare earth minerals, precious metals, oil and natural gas. Most importantly, as the ice recedes, a new year-round North Sea route will be opened, which will provide the shortest maritime connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic.
However, what makes the region particularly turbulent is that countries like Russia have repeatedly made Claim Over the Arctic territory.In support of its aggressive remarks, Moscow also recover Some Soviet-era military facilities have built new bases and are considering building more in the near future.
However, it is not only Russia that is interested in the Arctic. In addition to the United States, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden all have vested interests in the region. Although this does not mean that confrontation will inevitably occur in the Arctic, it does mean that over time, some European countries will have to devote more attention and resources to the Arctic.
challenge
Given the stakes, European leaders cannot hope for the best and do things as usual. Therefore, governments and international organizations should redouble their efforts to raise awareness and build resilience initiatives, and begin to prepare for the upcoming challenges of climate change.
