“A sort ofAmerica is back,” the president said Joe Biden Earlier this year, the entire democratic world breathed a sigh of relief.But when we see the collapse of the United States quit From Afghanistan-Kabul as Saigon 2-A ghostly voice whispered to us: What if the United States does not return?What if no way return? What will happen then? Chinese century? Europe becomes the new leader of the free world? Or simply old-fashioned international anarchy?
If only this Yes picture Saigon The humiliation of the United States in Vietnam in 1975 has continued Watergate, Which marks the trough of the reputation of the United States in the world. But within ten years, the United States is back. By 1995, it seemed to have taken the world by storm as a superpower with no challenge. Everyone knows that this time is different. The domestic problems caused by the United States itself are ten times more profound and structural than those in the mid-1970s—partly because, in accordance with the historically over-expanded empire model, it spent trillions of dollars in Afghanistan and Iraq, rather than in Do more country-building at home. Abroad, it is not facing the Soviet Union, a declining Leninist superpower, but a rising Leninist superpower China. Climate change is now the only superpower.
In reality, what can be most expected is that the United States will “come back” and become a Western power on the international stage. Equality first In the global democratic network. The resentment of the bad behavior of the United States around the world, up to and including this recent tragedy, should not allow any small Democrat anywhere to turn a blind eye to the fact that all possible alternatives to this situation are worse. The Biden government is our best chance to get there.
Imagine that the poor, corrupt, and US-funded Afghan government and its alleged 300,000 US-trained army have persisted for several weeks and evacuated in an orderly manner, with no Chinooks lingering on the flat roof of the embassy. –That Single picture More powerful than a million words. There will definitely be a lot of unhappiness and a sense of failure. But we could have reflected that this experienced American president is calmly implementing a stubborn plan to bring the United States back to the world in a strategic posture that is more suitable for responding to the 3C challenges determined by his government: the new crown virus, climate, China .
The United States may still resume this process. Events, like objects, always appear bigger from a close up. Those scenes at Kabul Airport will never be forgotten, but will gradually become a new perspective over time.
Nevertheless, now is the time to consider alternatives: the United States will never allow it to “return” to international leadership. What then? China will almost certainly become the dominant force in Asia, but not the dominant force. Japan, India and Australia, not to mention the United States, which still exists in the Indo-Pacific region, will work hard to avoid this situation. In China itself, an increasingly Leninist political system (power is not only concentrated in the hands of a party but in the hands of a person) and a complex, complicated, Capitalist economy Sooner or later, society will bring its own internal crisis. The quest to increase the legitimacy of nationalism through overseas ventures may be a direct result: be careful, Taiwan.
But this is not a formula for the “Chinese Century”. To a certain extent, people can reasonably talk about the American Century-or at least the 20 years of the United States, from 1989 to 2009-and the British Century before that.China has already exerted great influence in some European countries, but it will not become the dominant force in Europe EuropeNeither is Russia, although Vladimir Putin, like Xi Jinping, will undoubtedly be gloating over this recent setback by the United States.
So here is a more optimistic scene, let the French hearts sing. How did Europe enter a breakthrough? The European Union becomes the leader of the free world!reverse It is famous In a speech by George Canning, the former British Foreign Secretary, we called on the old world to restore balance to the new world. As a British European, I would love to see this happen.In fact, with friends from all over our mainland, I spent a lot of time in a project called European Council for External Relations It is to promote a more consistent and effective European foreign policy. But it doesn’t look good.
A European leader, French President Emmanuel Macron (Emmanuel Macron) has vision but no means. After the elections in September this year, the possible successor of German Chancellor Angela Merkel is capable but not farsighted.Britain just left the club, just to lead the British Conservative Party now loudly complaining that the United States has put us in trouble Afghanistan. This is hardly the secret of global leadership.
This leaves a third global option: international anarchy. Competing powers, tribes and interests. A sort of”G-zero“The world, as geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer said. In the worst case, Afghanistan is a big word. In addition to causing suffering to millions, it can burn Earth. The apocalyptic wildfires of this summer Greek islands and Flooding in GermanyNot to mention the recent authority of climate scientists warn, Clearly stated that we need unprecedented global collective action to deal with the climate crisis. However, geopolitical moments make this global collective action even more difficult to achieve.
I recently watched an American science fiction movie called arrive, Which vaguely Alien like an octopus Landed at locations in the United States, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and other major world powers. It turns out that their purpose is to get warring human tribes to cooperate because “we will need you in 3,500 years.” Yes, because this is an American movie, they succeeded.
However, if there is no clairvoyant interstellar octopus intervention, it is up to us.From a larger canvas, this geopolitical moment requires Europe and China, India, Japan, Australia and many other countries. And it still needs the United States to regain its leading role in concerts in democracies, instead of being the hegemon. A development economist once cruelly pointed out that for poor countries, there is only one thing worse than being exploited, and that is not being exploited. Not only for the West but for a dangerous world, there is one thing worse than the leadership of the United States, and that is the lack of leadership.
