A sort ofAs Afghanistan’s influence continues, EU leaders are A repeat of the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015. At a press conference in Berlin on Monday, Armin RascheltA possible successor to Angela Merkel believes: “We should not send a signal that Germany can accept all those in need. Unlike in 2015, the focus must be on humanitarian assistance on the ground.” Although French President Egypt Manuel Macron acknowledged that Europe has a responsibility to accept some “rights defenders, artists, journalists and activists who are now threatened”, but it raises a major warning. “Europe cannot face the consequences of the current situation alone. We must anticipate and protect ourselves from the large number of irregular immigration,” he said at a press conference.
Their worries conceal the reality that the EU and its member states have been taking tough measures to reduce irregular immigration for many years.This will prevent a repeat of 2015, when it exceeds 1.2 million refugees seek asylum Within the European Union (0.16% of the total European population), political opposition based on the so-called threat posed by these people to the European Union has been triggered.
The situation is very different now. The EU-Turkey Immigration Agreement came into effect in 2016 and has significantly curbed the number of arrivals. The number of first-time asylum applicants in the EU dropped to 631,300 in 2019, almost half of what it was four years ago. The EU’s border and coast guard institutions have also been strengthened. It used to rely on voluntary donations from EU capitals, and it had neither its own business staff nor the ability to conduct search and rescue operations. It now has a standing army equipped with ships and vehicles, and negotiates with third-party countries.
Several of them The “frontline” countries most vulnerable to refugees have also adopted extremely tough immigration policies. For example, Greece has been actively promoting immigration since the beginning of 2020 to prevent them from reaching the Aegean islands and avoid processing asylum applications. Unlike previous refugee crises, the EU will not diverge between hardliners and “open door” advocates. Most EU member states only welcome a small number of Afghan staff working in the group or the diplomatic missions of individual countries, as well as people who are vulnerable to persecution by the Taliban, such as women, girls, LGBTQ people, artists, journalists, and human rights defenders. Merkel and Sweden’s approach in 2015 will not come back, critics criticized it as an “open door.”
In addition, the main transit routes of Afghan refugees to Europe via Iran and Turkey will now be more difficult to complete. At the end of 2020, Iran Proposed new legislation Targeting Afghans will put undocumented immigrants facing up to 25 years in prison. In the next few weeks, hundreds of thousands of Afghans may enter Iran.
In Turkey, rising anti-refugee sentiment will also force President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to take a tougher stance. According to the Directorate General of Immigration Management of the Ministry of Interior, the Turkish authorities detained 455,000 irregular immigrants in 2019, and for Erdogan, the possibility of more refugees comes at the right time. His government is already under pressure for Mishandling of wildfires, Flood and tank economy. The Metropol survey in July showed 67% opposed Open borders to Afghan refugees, including more than half of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) voters.
It is for these reasons that Ankara’s goal is build a wall Along nearly half of the 500-kilometer border between Turkey and Iran-trenches were dug, barbed wire fences were set up, and patrols were stepped up to prevent crossings. Turkish security forces have also increased their presence at the Iranian border.
Therefore, unlike in 2015, when Ankara adopted an “open arms” policy for fleeing Syrians, both Turkey and the EU are now aligned in their determination to prevent further immigration. This will make possible the lack of diplomatic, security and financial cooperation at the time.
Early signals from Brussels and EU capitals indicate that the EU will work closely to stop irregular immigration, and partners headed by Turkey are trying to retain Afghan refugees. In this region-mainly in Pakistan, Iran or any Central Asian country that is willing to accept refugees or provide refugees with cross-border assistance. Brussels will also seek to stimulate an international response led by the UN refugee agency and joined by the United States and other Western allies.
Situation in Afghanistan This is unprecedented, and the possibility of many people being displaced across borders still exists, and EU leaders clearly think this is very problematic. Much depends on the nature of the Taliban regime. But pressure from Afghan refugees is unlikely to pose a systemic challenge to the EU or its member states. The EU leaders failed to recognize the defensive measures they had taken, but out of domestic political considerations: either the elections in Germany and France, or they were trying to prevent populists who had largely failed to take advantage of the pandemic. progress.
