As California’s 30-day recall election enters “Election Day” on September 14, there are new polls almost every day. They are usually the same, with some outliers-as they usually happen. However, a poll released by the Trafalgar Group on Wednesday attracted some attention.
#CARecall —— @加文新森 The remaining governors have a significant lead.
No, let him keep 52%,
Yes, delete him 44.4%,
Not sure 3.7%,although @拉里尔德 If the recall is successful, there will be multiple leads-according to @trafalgar_group #That #Remember #polling Proceed on 8/26-29 see report: https://t.co/oA0LIFe4aw pic.twitter.com/IELqWeqbPj
-Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 1, 2021
Trafalgar is touted as a “Republican” company and is generally regarded as reliable by people on our side. It shows that Newsom defeated the recall by 8 points, and Republican Larry Elder was the leading alternative candidate. None of them is surprising. Surprisingly, Doug Ose (who withdrew from the competition due to health issues and supported Kiley 10 days before the start of the investigation) excluded Asm. Kevin Keeley (Who gets 3rd or 4th in all other polls And is one of the three Republicans participating in every TV debate).
In addition, the Democrat/YouTuber Kevin Paffrath had a similar performance in the first U.S. survey conducted a few weeks ago. In the follow-up survey of the U.S. survey released the same morning, Paffrath’s approval rate dropped by 6%. . This is why, According to the company:
SurveyUSA today listed all 46 candidates; in previous polls, SurveyUSA nominated only 7 viable candidates, including a Democrat, Paffrath. When today’s interviewees saw the complete list of candidates, including 9 Democrats, Pavlat’s approval rating returned to a more realistic level of 6%.
I am curious whether Trafalgar gave the interviewee a complete list of candidates or asked an open-ended question, or whether there was a question that did not list party affiliation-because if only one Democrat appeared in the answer On the list, that is why the Democratic Party will conduct public opinion polls at the high end. Also, to know about the survey design and who sponsored it, I clicked on Trafalgar’s website.
according to Seven-page document (Almost all composed of charts) Marked as “full report” on the Trafalgar website, the poll of 1,088 “probable voters” in the 2021 recall was conducted between August 26 and 28, 2021 , And claimed to have 95% confidence and 2.98% margin of error. The methodology is not listed; instead, the viewer is referred to a page on the Trafalgar website: TheTrafalgarGroup.org/Polling-MethodologyThe method on this page is not specific to this poll, in fact, it is not very specific at all.
Judging from the report, when asked “Should Newsom be recalled, among the following candidates, who are you most likely to support to replace him”, who is the only candidate that appeared in front of the interviewee? They are the Elder, Pavlas, Kevin Falconer, John Cox, Caitlin Jenner and Doug Ossey. Respondents can also say that they have not yet decided or are “someone else”.
I also asked Trafalgar (via Twitter) who paid for the polls.
No one pays for it. We do it like all the horse racing polls we do for publicity. We have gained a lot of business because our voting results usually have the lowest error compared to other companies.
— Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) September 1, 2021
They replied:
“No one pays for it. We do it like all the horse racing polls we do for publicity. We get a lot of business because our voting results are usually the lowest error compared to other companies.”
This still doesn’t make sense, especially since I have been contacted by a source who claimed to have participated in the polls. He said that Kiley was explicitly excluded from the polls, and the vast majority of those who answered “other people” Here comes the name. Since the approval rate of “others” is 9.1%, this means that Kevin Kiley is the second Republican. And, if Trafalgar is doing this for publicity, and on the surface it will be marketing If they use these results, do they want to show that Kiley has a 9% approval rate through the polls, just in case the actual result is like this?
Not to mention that everyone who follows the recall closely knows this fact Elder’s main competitor is Kevin Kiley. Long-time activists are frustrated by Elder’s refusal to even appear in the same room with Keeley and his refusal to appear before their grassroots club because they cannot promise to make a big contribution and are working hard to decide which person will get their vote. . Excluding Geely from horse racing polls and making the results an objective goal is professional malpractice.
When I lifted my chin from the floor, I received a direct Twitter message from Trafalgar.I was told to question who paid [the poll] Unfair, they always reveal whether they get paid to conduct horse racing polls, and they will “solve the Kiley problem” by conducting another poll that includes Kiley.
Then I received a direct Twitter message from Robert Cahaly. He said that they initially conducted a poll for a private client who did not want to publish, and Kiley did not appear in the top 10, and then they conducted a poll for the media themselves and did not update the top 10. He added that the few Republicans that say “others” are likely to support Geely. Unfortunately, we don’t know how many Republicans say “others” because they haven’t provided enough information about the polls to make a decision.
This series of events and some assertions simply cannot stand scrutiny, and there are some major problems.
First of all-I have participated in many campaigns, so I know this firsthand-if the campaign hires pollsters to conduct internal polls, and they don’t want these results to be released to the public, if the pollsters turn around and copy Polls use their own dime and publish the results, the campaign will be lively, and the pollster may never be used again. There is a reason why they do not want to announce these results to the public. If they do, and they don’t want it to come from them, they will find a way to divulge the results. That’s the way it is.
Secondly, why would Cahaly admit sloppy voting design? Did people who are considered to be one of the best pollsters in the country just forget to “update the top 10”? This will not give me confidence in the work product.
Third, no matter how Cahaly defines the “top 10”, Kiley will be among them. In all other opinion polls, his approval rating ranks in the top 3 or 4; often two or three candidates are tied for second or third.if
Fourth, where is the term “top 10” in the survey design? It’s not at all. Is there a leading problem in the design that we don’t know?
Fifth, yes It is totally unethical to lie/mislead who sponsors a poll. I know that Cahaly claimed that the poll results he released were not sponsored by anyone, but it was creepy. He re-conducted the exact polls he conducted for private clients and released the results. This means that this private client sponsored this poll-I don’t believe Cahaly conducted the exact same poll for the second time. It just doesn’t make sense. The private client instructed Cahaly to exclude one of the main candidates for some reason. What’s the reason for that? Is it to suppress the Keeley vote? Is it to make Elder look like there is really no competition on the Republican side, and this is really an Elder/Pafrath game? If we know who is paying for it, we will know the answer to this question.
I don’t believe that Larry Elder’s campaign has anything to do with this, because this poll was not entirely positive for him. It injects vitality into Newsom’s supporters, who are more afraid that Republicans who support Trump will become governor of California than anything.
Let us hope that Cahaly will soon launch a well-designed new opinion poll including Kevin Kiley, because more and more people are voting every day, and there is no doubt that some people have been criticized by a reputable company like Trafalgar. The impact of opinion polls (as evidenced by social media responses). At the very least, Cahaly owes the truth to California voters who tried to influence the recall election by disseminating deliberately misleading poll results.
(Note: The California authors of RedState unanimously support Kevin Kiley as governor.)
