SecondThe store is overcrowded and the restaurant is rejecting customers who have not made a reservation. Judging from the people carrying the bags, the Christmas shopping season has already begun. Belfast In the past few decades, he has known many crises, but this is not like one of them.
On the contrary, on a Thursday night in November, the capital of Northern Ireland has the atmosphere of other big cities in the UK, the hotel industry is booming, and a lot of money changes hands. If it wasn’t for the accent, it could be Leeds or Manchester.
But like Leeds and Manchester, scars can be seen just a few steps from the city centre, and in Belfast, these scars come not only from the effects of industrial decline, but also from trouble. The Berlin Wall may have collapsed; there is no “peace wall” separating the Falls and Shankill highways.
Brexit has added new complexity to the highly tense politics in Northern Ireland. The agreement agreed between London and Brussels prevents the establishment of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland by setting up barriers in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
If the plan is to make the peace process more secure, then it will not work.Unionist politicians stated that the EU’s strict interpretation of the agreement made the agreement unworkable, and Lord Frost, Secretary of State for Brexit Threats for several weeks to invoke Article 16, which imposes an emergency brake on the Northern Ireland chapter of the UK-EU agreement. This may trigger a full-scale trade war, which will be devastating for companies that have already felt the effects of additional trade frictions.
Archie Norman, Chairman of Marks & Spencer, said: “Currently the situation is not bad. We do have border restrictions, but they can be handled. The situation is much better than the Republic of Ireland or the mainland. Europe, We have announced the reorganization of our food business. “
Norman insists that there are no food safety issues. “Our food standards are higher than continental Europe. It is wise to agree that the products are equivalent, and we agree not to give up the standards. If we plan to make any changes, we will notify the EU and they can decide what to do.
“From a macro point of view, the economic problem is trivial. The population of Northern Ireland is similar to that of Hertfordshire. Of course, this is very important politically, but products from other parts of the UK are not harmful to anyone. We There is a risk of fighting for no reason.”
The Minister of Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis hopes to reach an agreement that allows exporters to have the best of both worlds-access to the EU single market and the UK’s internal market.
“Meet the conditions that trigger Article 16,” he said, “but we don’t want to use it. We prefer to reach an agreement with the EU. This can be achieved through a different implementation process.”
Lewis said that public discussions about Northern Ireland focused on Brexit and trouble, And it is difficult to “breakthrough”, so companies and individuals see opportunities for existence. “Everyone wants to talk about the agreement and the legacy of the past. A different story is happening.”
Part of this story is the prosperity of the film and television industry in Northern Ireland game of Thrones. Some modest pump start-ups that began in 2010 led to eight blockbuster series and became magnets for other works. “We invested a lot of money in the pilot. We took the risk and it paid off,” said Richard Williams, chief executive of the Northern Ireland Screen.
Got Opened the way: after it came, among other things, responsibility range, Delhi girls, Dalglish, A new miniseries based on Henry Fielding’s novel Tom Jones, with promiseSman, A new Viking Revenge movie starring Nicole Kidman. Belfast now has three film studios, and Williams said that the industry’s success is “a shining example of what should happen after the Good Friday agreement.”
PAC Group-a manufacturing company located in the north of Belfast that provides solutions to engineering problems-may lack the stardust of Kidman’s new movie, but in a way it is a symbol of Northern Ireland’s economy: scale Small (45 employees), but rapid development in the later period-locked in, and now encounters supply constraints.
Darren Leslie, the company’s business development director and co-founder, said: “Things are starting to rebound. Everyone is busy. No one can get people. The workload is increasing. It is difficult for us to find the right people and keep them. .”
Compared to any other place in the UK, Northern Ireland is a land of sharp contrasts. It has the highest public sector employment share to date, but Queen’s University Belfast has the most affiliates of all universities, and in the past 25 years, public-private partnerships have helped build an impressive network Security cluster. This is the poorest area and the happiest area.
According to John Turner, a professor of finance at Queen’s University, Northern Ireland has a wealth of social capital, which can explain high levels of happiness. “People have weathered the storm and are able to cope with adversity. Maybe it makes people more resilient.”
Graham Brownlow of Queen’s University School of Management said there are three sets of economic problems in Northern Ireland. First of all, it has something in common with and entangled with the problems of the British economic model. Second, Britain’s weaknesses, such as low productivity and low R&D investment, have been magnified in Northern Ireland. Finally, it has its own unique problems: the agreement, shared borders, and the Good Friday agreement did not really consider the need for economic reconstruction at the same time as political reconciliation.
“A lot of people’s solutions don’t solve all problems. They will suggest a panacea solution—for example, using a corporate tax rate as low as the Republic—but none of them,” Brownlow said.
Trouble has hindered the economy, leading to weak investment and trade. Public spending has filled this gap. Since the Good Friday agreement, public spending has been relabeled as part of the peace dividend. But since the split in 1921, political instability has been hindering economic development. In the early 1960s, as part of the economic restructuring, the Ministry of Finance requested the closure of the shipyards Harland and Wolff.
The close ties between politicians and businessmen encourage nepotism. The education system is still largely torn apart along the Catholic-Protestant route. In the UK, Northern Ireland has the largest proportion of Neets-young people without employment, education or training. Small businesses tend to stay small.
Owen Reidy, Assistant Secretary-General of the Irish Trade Union Congress, also complained about the lack of long-term strategy, and complained that local politicians’ quarrels may have overestimated their importance: “This is a small place on the edge of Europe. Overemphasis on looking south. , Look east or look across the Atlantic.
“Some people are looking for dad in London; some people look at the mummy in Dublin. But mom and dad are not so interested anymore.”
Try “Helicopter Money”
Ever since Milton Friedman coined the term, economists have been arguing about the advantages of “helicopter money”-free cash designed to encourage consumers to spend. Northern Ireland is testing this theory.
Beginning with a program tried in Jersey last year, every adult in the country has received a Mastercard with £100 in it, which they must spend before mid-December. In order to support local businesses and encourage traffic on the street, this money cannot be spent online.
Gordon Lyons, the Minister of Economy for Northern Ireland, stated that if each adult’s spending reaches the limit of 100 pounds, the economy will increase by 140 million pounds. “We hope to provide enterprises with a booster immediately, and we are now at the peak of this plan.”
Lyon hopes to get a bigger boost, thanks to the multiplier effect. For example, someone buys a new washing machine and needs to hire a plumber to install it. Mastercard stated that Jersey has a clear multiplier effect.
Even so, some people say that funds from the Covid Recovery Fund of the British government may have been used more effectively. Peter Bryson of Save the Children in Northern Ireland said that it’s best to spend helicopter money on increasing income from universal credit or child payments for a quarter of Northern Ireland’s children living in poverty .
SDLP politician Matthew O’Toole asked: “Is it the right time to take stimulus measures? People will use it on Black Friday. It is difficult to see that it has additional stimulus.”
However, he thinks this is a fascinating economic experiment. “People will study for PhDs in this area for many years.”
