Before and after the release of the CPI in November.
Several surveys and forecasts before the release, and the outlook for the next year.
figure 1: CPI year-on-year inflation (black), the expected median of the survey of professional forecasters (blue +), the expected median of the Michigan Consumer Survey (preliminary) (red), the median of the New York Federal Reserve Consumer Expectation Survey (light green), Cleveland Fed’s forecast (pink), from the average of Coibion-Gorodnichenko’s expected survey [light blue squares]Source: BLS, University of Michigan through FRED and Investment Net, Reuters, Survey of professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Cleveland Federal Reserve and Kobion and Gorodnichenko.
From a market perspective, after the release on Friday:
figure 1: The five-year inflation breakeven is calculated as the five-year treasury bond yield minus the five-year TIPS yield (dark blue line). The five-year breakeven is adjusted by the inflation risk premium and the liquidity premium per DKW (light blue thin line). The five-year five-year forward expected inflation is calculated from the yields of Treasury bonds and TIPS (red), both in %. Source: FRB through FRED, Ministry of Finance, King, Walsh, and Wei (2019) After D’amico, Kim and Wei (DKW) interviewed 11/5, NBER, and the author’s calculations.
The inflation balance (unadjusted) actually fell on Friday, as did the five-year five-year forward inflation balance (although the latter is more moderate).
