OneLast month, approximately 12.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas flowed into Europe from the Russian state-owned company Gazprom. The world’s largest natural gas producer can usually meet more than one-third of the world’s needs. European Union, But traffic dropped to a six-year low in November.
The gas supply comes from Russia It has been far below pre-pandemic levels for several months. The amount of Russian natural gas flowing into homes, businesses and storage facilities this year is nearly a quarter lower than in 2019.
The economic slowdown occurred in the context of a surge in natural gas demand after the global pandemic, which triggered global power outages and record energy market prices.This also coincides with the surge in Russia’s aggression against its neighbors Ukraine And Moldova, and deepen tensions with Western powers over the North Stream 2 pipeline.
At the same time, as the global gas crisis swept across the European economy-forcing Factory closed, The failure of major energy suppliers and One of the fastest growing household energy bills on record – Gazprom achieved the highest profit ever.
The company reported that its net income from July to September reached a record 582 billion rubles (£5.86 billion) compared to its net loss a year ago. The company expects “The fourth quarter results are even more impressive“.
Gazprom’s success in profiting from the global gas crisis has once again triggered criticism from the outside world that the Kremlin is using Russia’s huge reserves as a political weapon against the West and its allies.
The Russian government denies this. Gazprom claims to be fulfilling all long-term contracts with its European customers and explained that Russia itself has a low level of natural gas storage and that colder temperatures mean higher domestic demand, which explains the lower “spot” exports. Few market experts fully believe it.
But according to Carlos Torres Diaz, head of natural gas research at consulting firm Rystad Energy, Gazprom must weigh the benefits of allowing gas prices to remain at historically high levels with long-term commercial and financial considerations. If natural gas is still unaffordable, its customers can accelerate the shift to green alternatives or find other natural gas sources.
Rystad estimates that if Russia increases natural gas exports by 20%, it may reduce the price of natural gas in Western Europe by 50%. On the contrary, Gazprom has found a cautious balance, “between selling as much natural gas as possible without increasing market sales to the point of lowering market prices,” Torres Diaz said.
He added that in terms of Gazprom’s future earnings, taking advantage of today’s higher natural gas prices may prove to be a double-edged sword.
“For many years, Europe has relied on natural gas as a relatively cheap energy source with lower emissions than coal. This winter’s prices may encourage more countries to develop more renewable energy sources to protect themselves from the soaring energy market in the future. ,” Torres Diaz said.
“Gazprom has always wanted to be regarded as a reliable energy partner for European buyers. Even if exports to Asia increase, Europe will still be their main market. Gazprom is considering its future and exporting hydrogen to Europe.”
The state-owned producer’s slowdown in European gas exports coincides with diplomatic wrestling Controversial Beixi No. 2 Natural Gas Pipeline, It plans to use it to directly deliver natural gas to Germany, bypassing its neighbors in Ukraine, and it is reported that Russia has assembled 100,000 troops along the border in Ukraine.
Ukraine warned that the North Stream pipeline would reduce Gazprom’s reliance on its network of important natural gas transportation pipelines and may make Moscow more susceptible to invasions. On Sunday night, as tensions on the border between Russia and Ukraine intensified, Germany warned that “if the situation escalated further,” the Beixi 2 project would not continue.
After the long-term contract ended, Gazprom also reduced the supply of Moldova, another important natural gas transit country, by a third in September. Trigger a state of emergency in the countryGazprom requested that the previous payment be more than doubled to keep natural gas flowing, and agreed to postpone the new EU rules, which will create more competition in the market.
Emil Avdaliani, a professor at the European University, said that these measures are to a certain extent “a temporary response to every growing crisis” and constitute a strategy for protecting Russia’s financial interests by avoiding countries that pose geopolitical risks to their natural gas supply routes. Part. In Tbilisi, Georgia.
“At the same time, every move by Russia is part of a broader strategy to use energy as a tool to expand its influence in Europe,” he said. “Moscow basically counts on these countries to have no choice.”
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Avdaliani said that the switch to clean energy is the last political tool threat to Russia, and the Russian leader has so far failed to resolve this issue.
“Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has been popular to regard Russia as a major power, but I see its influence is gradually declining. Its only tool of political influence to prevent Eastern European countries from fleeing to the West is energy-no other pulleys-and Energy is also declining,” he said.
For this winter, it may be a cold comfort, but Russia’s natural gas dominance may soon be stifled.
