Why is there a tension?
Russia Already deployed in advance Hundreds of tanks, self-propelled artillery, and even short-range ballistic missiles, from as far as Siberia to the Ukrainian border. US intelligence agencies said that Russia may launch an offensive of as many as 100 Battalion Tactical Teams (BTG) by the end of January, with an estimated 175,000 soldiers. Current estimates indicate that Russia has about 50 BTGs in the border area, which is already an important force that can surpass Ukraine’s defensive positions.
Russian rhetoric has become more belligerent.Vladimir Putin asks for a legal guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO or the host country Missile strike system, He is unlikely to get concessions. His time is also very short. His troops cannot leave the garrison indefinitely. At the end of winter, he may have to launch an attack or withdraw his troops from what appears to be a retreat.
How did we get here?
Year 2014 Putin sends troops to annex Crimea, Ukraine is the main Russian-speaking region. Russia also instigated a separatist uprising in southeastern Ukraine, secretly sending soldiers and weapons to provoke conflict, which eventually turned into a full-scale war.
One 2015 peace agreement The demarcation line was drawn and the two parties were called on to make concessions. Since then, low-level battles on the front line have continued, with both sides accusing each other of violating the agreement, which observers say is close to collapse.
Russia no longer wants to maintain the status quo and is looking for another way to control Ukraine.
What do we know about deployment?
Many of the heavy weapons stationed near Ukraine arrived in the spring when Russia Approximately 110,000 soldiers equipped with tanks and other heavy weapons were deployed near the border. After Putin and Joe Biden (Joe Biden) summit, Russia returned some (but not all) of its troops to the base in May.
One of the largest remaining forces comes from the 41st Joint Armed Forces, which is headquartered in Novosibirsk, nearly 2,000 miles away. Since the spring, they have been stationed in the Pogonovo training area south of Voronezh. Some units of the 41st Air Force have been transferred to Yelnya, a town in the Smolensk region near Belarus.
The equipment includes motorized infantry, main battle tanks, rocket launchers and Iskander short-range ballistic missiles. It is estimated to include six to seven BTGs. According to estimates Written by independent defense analyst Konrad Muzyka.
According to Muzka’s estimation, the tanks, motorized infantry and rocket launchers of the 1st Guards Tank Corps headquartered in the Moscow region have been transferred to the Pogonovo training area.
Other recent developments indicate that the motorized infantry brigade of the 49th Synthetic Army is heading towards Crimea. The artillery and anti-aircraft assets of the 58th Coalition Army were also found in satellite photos taken from the sky above New Vosenne in western Crimea.
The 8th and 20th Joint Armed Forces also have units permanently deployed near Ukraine. Ukraine is estimated to have tens of thousands of soldiers stationed in the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk supported by Russia.
What form will Russia’s attack take?
Map issued by the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service November Shows the worst: Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border from the east, launched an attack from the annexed Crimea, and attacked Ode with the support of Russian soldiers along the Transnistria and troops sent from Belarus. Sa launched an amphibious assault. Certain aspects of the plan, such as attacks from the east and through Crimea, seem to have become possible. Other factors, such as the attack from Belarus, seem to take into account troops that have not yet arrived in the area.
Russia can maintain its dominance through less extensive actions.Director of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service Tell the New York Times His nightmare scenario involves air strikes and rocket attacks on ammunition depots and trenches, which may disable the army and leave the frontline commander to fight alone. He said that if Russia launches a full-scale invasion, they will fall. At that time, Russia may seek strong support for Kiev and reach an unfavorable peace agreement.
Other options include sending “peacekeeping forces” or secretly deploying troops to Donetsk and Lugansk under the guise of separatist forces. From there they can revive the fighting on the front lines or seek to occupy new territories.
According to the War Research Institute, one option is to break the siege from Donetsk, try to build a land bridge connecting Crimea and the territory near Rostov, and seize the Kherson area north of Crimea and secure the north. The security of the Crimea Canal. Russia needs to occupy Mariupol, a very heavily defended city, in order for this plan to work.
Since the United States and its allies promised to impose “significant and severe” sanctions in the event of an attack, any new battle could cause a huge economic rebound.
The last option may be the most likely: Russia seeks concessions from the West in negotiations, while retaining its troops along the border in response to credible escalation threats. Putin has said that he believes that high tension is good for Russia, and he has already withdrawn from Ukraine once this year.
Nonetheless, analysts say that without a clear diplomatic victory, any drawdown may look like a failure.
What is the role of Beixi 2?
The completion of the Beixi No. 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany provides economic weapons for both parties.The pipeline will allow Russia to transport natural gas to Europe There is no need to go through Ukraine, which means that Moscow can put pressure on Kiev without worrying that Kiev will cut off gas supply routes in retaliation. Ukraine lobbied vigorously against the project, saying it undermined its national security.
However, the pipeline that has become Putin’s darling is not yet online, and Western governments have signaled that in the event of an invasion, this may never happen.
