A generationIn 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskiy voted in protest for victory in Ukraine, telling his supporters that he will imprison corrupt politicians, and directly negotiate with Vladimir Putin to end Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine.Nearly three years later, Zelensky stared Threat of Russian invasionAt the same time, he called the Western powers to his side and appealed for assistance. “We know what it means to defend our country and land with weapons,” he said in a speech to the Kiev Jewish Forum last week.
Under Putin’s pressure, Zelensky experienced profound political changes. One thing is clear: he is no longer the same pigeon in the campaign.Russia is pushing Ukraine To NATO, he said, The membership action plan is now at the core of his foreign policy. This month, Zelensky visited the front line on the outskirts of Donetsk. He was wearing a body armor and helmet, chatting with service personnel, and if tanks from Russia started to roll, they would become Ukraine’s first line of defense.
Russia publicly rejected Zelensky’s negotiation efforts, and negotiations have actually ceased. Since the ceasefire last year, 50 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. This fact has dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian president who was born as an actor. “I think he has matured. He is old. You can see this,” said Oresia Lusevich, a researcher and manager of the Ukrainian Forum. Russia And the Eurasian Project of the Chatham Institute. “He just had to take responsibility.”
After Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 and actually took over large areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, Russia has assembled tanks, artillery and even ballistic missiles near the border, seemingly ready to invade Ukraine again. Western intelligence agencies have warned that a new offensive may begin in the new year.
The Kremlin has Issue a list of requirements Crossed Kiev and flew directly to the United States. It wants an ironclad guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, although such prospects still have a long way to go, and there is almost no consensus among NATO members. Moscow hopes to obtain a special status for the separatist eastern territories already managed by Russian-controlled agents. These requirements are actually equivalent to the return of the Kremlin’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Western leaders are likely to reject them. Moscow, in turn, can use it as a predicate for war.
All of this put Zelensky facing the most serious crisis during his presidency. As a former comedian, he played the role of president in a popular TV series “Servant of the People” before he really got the job. His predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, supported strong anti-Moscow views. In contrast, Zelensky ran as a peace candidate.
“Zelensky’s policy towards Russia is very naive. He said that to stop the war, one must talk to Putin. His words are pacifist,” said Oleksi Haran, a professor of political science at the Mohyla College of Kiev University. . Haran added that Zelensky’s team considered possible concessions to Moscow, including water supply to Crimea.
In the early days of Zelensky’s tenure, this contact strategy produced some results, leading to prisoner exchanges and a series of short moratoriums along the so-called line of control-a 250-mile solid front line through the Donbass, on the one hand with the Ukrainians. It’s the army, and on the other hand it’s the Russian army and its agents.
But it gradually became apparent that the downgrade did not happen. “Putin didn’t stop shooting,” Harlan said. “This is sober for Zelensky. He thought: “I am making concessions and nothing has changed. “
Moscow made no secret of its contempt for the cartoonist’s transformation into president. “Why contact with the current leaders of Ukraine is meaningless,” read the title of an article written by former prime minister Dmitry Medvedev earlier this year.In it, he elaborated on the strategy of direct dialogue between Moscow and Washington: “We have no meaning in dealing with vassals. Business needs to be conducted with the overlord. [sovereign]. “
Foreign policy analyst Fyodor Lukyanov (Fyodor Lukyanov) said: “People are convinced that Zelensky is a person who has no meaning in trying to discuss political issues.” He said that in the temple of power Zelensky was compared with Poroshenko. Poroshenko is regarded by Moscow as a “provocateur”, but he at least understands where Russia’s “red line” is. He said that in contrast, Zelensky’s lack of experience was seen as potentially dangerous.
Of course, Moscow has never given Zelensky too many opportunities. The Kremlin’s relationship with the president-elect began to take a hard line. Before he took office, he proposed to expedite the process of obtaining Russian passports for residents of eastern Ukraine, which deepened the conflict it caused in 2014.
When the negotiations began, Moscow also took a hard line.Zelensky’s first domestic crisis occurred in October 2019, when he announced that he agreed with Russia to reach the so-called Steinmeier formula, which would allow elections in Russia-controlled Ukrainian regions to be organized by security organizations and cooperative organizations. Advance under supervision-operation EuropeVeterans and radicals in Kiev protested with the slogan “No surrender!” Efforts to initiate the Minsk peace agreement ultimately failed.
The Kremlin became even more angry because smaller deals, such as the establishment of a consulting agency within the Minsk agreement, also failed. It began to divulge details of negotiations with Zelensky’s team and eventually severed most political connections completely.
Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, said this may be due to Putin’s belief that Zelensky could not achieve the concessions he wanted. “They came to the conclusion that they have no real partners to negotiate,” he said of the Kremlin.
Facing Moscow’s tough tactics, Zelensky took a tougher stance. In February, the National Security Council of Ukraine shut down three TV channels controlled by Viktor Medvedchuk, an influential pro-Kremlin Ukrainian Politicians and oligarchs. This is a bold move. Putin is the godfather of Medvechuk’s daughter. Medvedchuk was placed under house arrest and charged with treason.
Zelensky’s supporters say these channels are spreading pro-Russian rhetoric about the Donbass conflict. However, a member of Medvechuk’s opposition party stated that Putin viewed the repression as a “personal insult”. The insider said that by arresting Medvechuk, Zelensky removed a trusted interlocutor, leaving Moscow with only military options.
Lutsevych added that Russia may now take some kind of military action. This may not lead to a full-scale ground invasion. She said this could include punitive airstrikes on Ukraine’s military infrastructure, as well as the open entry of Russian troops into the rebel-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk, where residents would greet Putin’s soldiers with flowers. This is from Russian state television. Perfect image.
Lutsevych said Zelensky was “a bit desperate” for the West’s slow response to the crisis and its failure to provide Ukraine with additional defensive missiles. She suggested that Kiev and Moscow currently have irreconcilable differences on how to resolve the situation in the Donbass. Zelensky hopes to cease fire and dismantle heavy weapons before the political fate of the region is determined; Putin is just the opposite.
Moscow has long lured its neighbors into conflict and tried to portray Zelensky as another Mikheil Saakashvili (Mikheil Saakashvili), the President of Georgia in the brief war with Russia in 2008 Was defeated. As Moscow moves its troops on the Ukrainian border and asks its diplomats to make concessions knowing that they will not be granted, it seems that Russia may seek to provoke that result.
Lukyanov of the Kremlin said: “Many people here believe that, compared with the previous leader, he is ready to risk an external crisis to solve domestic problems.”
Zelensky’s ratings have been declining since 2019, when he received a staggering 70% of the vote. Halfway through his presidency, he received approximately 25% support. He remains the most popular politician in the country. As far as the current situation is concerned, he is likely to be re-elected in 2024-that is, assuming that Russia will not occupy Kiev first and overthrow its pro-EU government.
“His personality may be very impulsive,” said Professor of International Relations at Uzhhoro German University of Zelensky. Todorov added: “His voters are very solid. There is a positive patriotic majority.”
Todorov had taught at Donetsk University and was forced to flee in 2014. He stated that he does not think Russia will escalate the existing military conflict with Ukraine. Instead, he said, Putin is playing a “global political game” designed to divide the West and fight for the greatest concessions.
Observers said Zelensky still exhibited moments of political immaturity, adding that he was overly dependent on a small group of advisers who had worked with him on television. They cited his interim suggestion last week that the referendum may resolve the Donbass issue. And he renewed his proposal for talks with Putin-a man who did not start in Moscow, Zelensky may fight a more experienced opponent in a forum.
“This will be a contest between the KGB and the comics,” Harlan said. He added: “Zelensky has been stronger mentally since he was elected. But there is no clear point in his mind. He believes that he will do something good for the country. He doesn’t understand much politics. For example, he thinks of any criticism. His people have been manipulated to some extent.”
Currently, Zelensky and the Western world are waiting to see what Putin will do next. Harlan said that Russia believes that it has all the cards. “For Putin, it is important to go into history as a true national hero and as the person who reunified Russia’s Slavic lands. He has Belarus in his pocket. He has DNR. [the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic]. Many people there now hold Russian passports. Putin can say that he is defending them. “
For Putin, he believes it is his duty to shift Kiev’s trajectory to the West, and he believes that Ukraine’s potential peacemaker is an obstacle to his progress. A former Russian government official said: “Anything related to Ukraine is very personal to him. There is no room for negotiation. He is willing to be punished for it.” “When he looked at Zelensky, he did not Seeing an equal…he saw someone wasting time.”
