The growth rate of the UK economy from July to September was slower than initially expected due to poor performance after the decline in health, hairdressing shops and trade. Brexit, According to official data.
Reveals that the growth rate was worse than originally calculated even before the Omicron coronavirus variant attacked, National Bureau of Statistics Said that in the three months to September, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.1%, lower than the initial estimate of 1.3%.
Compared with the 5.4% growth rate in the second quarter, the latest data shows that as the economy reopened from Covid restrictions, household consumption helped maintain its growth momentum in the last few months of the summer. Household consumption increased by 2.7%, higher than originally expected, and contributed the most to expenditure.
However, statisticians said that the overall weakness in GDP data was driven by new data on GP surgery and outpatient follow-up appointments, during which the government’s consumption of medical services dropped sharply. Consumer spending on other personal services such as hairdressing was also lower than expected.
As a sign of Omicron’s weakening momentum before its emergence, the latest snapshot also shows that disruptions in the global supply chain and additional Brexit trade barriersExports fell by 3.5% in the third quarter, and the overall trade balance, which measures the balance of imports and exports, fell from an initially estimated deficit of 1.2% to 1.9%.
Due to the decrease in products such as machinery and transportation equipment exported overseas, the export of goods fell by 8.8% in the third quarter. This was only slightly offset by the 2.7% growth in service exports driven by financial services.
In contrast, due to increased imports of fuels, commodities and chemicals, total imports to the UK increased by 1.1%, higher than previous estimates.
The balance of payments between the UK and the rest of the world expanded from 2.3% in the second quarter to 4.2%, due to falling exports, rising imports, and more revenue for companies. Holding UK equity investments through dividends.
The latest data also shows that despite the government’s introduction of a series of measures, business investment still fell by 2.5% this quarter. Super deductible In the spring budget, companies are encouraged to invest in machinery, construction, and other productivity-enhancing projects.
Gabriella Dickens, a senior British economist at consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that the weakness and supply chain disruption associated with Brexit are the main culprits for the weak performance of international trade.
“Although a high degree of business confidence shows [investment] It will rebound in 2022, but due to Brexit, British manufacturers continue to be slowly removed from the global supply chain, and net trade may continue to be dragged down,” she said.
Despite the weaker performance in the third quarter, a revision to the 2020 economic performance showed that in the year when the coronavirus pandemic first shocked the global economy, GDP fell less than expected.
GDP fell by 9.4%, lower than the earlier estimate of 9.7%, although this is still the largest contraction in a century. However, this improvement means that GDP is now estimated to be closer to its pre-epidemic peak, only 1.5% lower than the previous estimate of 2.1%.
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These figures cover the period before the popularity of Omicron prompted the government to take measures Introduce Covid B plan measures, Leading to a sharp decline in transactions between hotel premises and other companies, because more and more people decide to stay at home.
Faced with the rapid decline in consumer confidence amidst the wave of hotel venue cancellations during key festivals, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announced a 1 billion pounds of financial support On Tuesday, to cushion the impact on the economy.
This Bank of England Earlier this month, it warned that with the inflation rate rising sharply to the highest level in a decade, the growth rate in the last three months of 2021 would further slow to around 0.5%.
However, economists said that the continued decline in economic activity in the new year or the government’s tightening of restrictions may drag down the GDP reversal. Danni Hewson, financial analyst at stockbroker AJ Bell, said: “Even with new government support, Omicron will be like a plumb hammer on the ankles of these industries, and as growth has been sleepwalking to 2022, it is very likely to be next. The group numbers will show that the direction of travel has been reversed.”
