A generationMore than 13 years have passed since the NATO summit in Bucharest. This meeting agreed that the Western alliance wanted the former Soviet Union countries Ukraine and Georgia to become members.But in many ways, the legacy of the April 2008 conference-the last time I attended Vladimir Putin – Today’s Ukrainian crisis is unresolved.
George W. Bush came here with an expansionist and post-Cold War mentality A road map to promote Ukraine and Georgia to join NATOThe granting of their so-called membership action plan will enable the two countries to emulate the series of former Eastern European countries that have been allowed to join since 1999.
However, Putin addressed the leaders of the meeting at the beginning of the meeting, describing the move As a “direct threat” to Russian security“I remember he clearly said to Angela Merkel and Bush:’For me, Ukraine is not a real country’,” said Jamie Shea, who has worked in NATO for 38 years.
Putin’s language contributed to a partial retreat—and a problematic compromise.
“Strong bargaining with Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy [the then French president] turn out Ukraine Membership will be obtained in the future, but there will be no membership action plan and no exact date for joining NATO,” Shea said.
As a result, the problem was allowed to continue, Then And its members are not fully committed to Ukraine. “I’m actually there,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodmir Zelensky last week. “We support this decision.”
But this dubious promise is still a public pain for Russia’s long-serving leaders. Obsessed with the long history of the two countries as one country before 1991Putin wrote: “I believe that only by cooperating with Russia can Ukraine truly have sovereignty.” In a historical paper The Kremlin was released in July. “Because we are one person.”
According to the new British official, during this winter’s crisis, Russia gathered about 100,000 soldiers in the north, east, and south of Ukraine, which made NATO allies worry about invasion and “on a scale never seen since World War II”. Armed Forces, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin.But in the past week, the attention-seeking Kremlin has turned A series of diplomatic requirements.
Russia submits draft security treaty to the United States Before publicIts terms stipulate that the United States should prevent the former Soviet Union countries such as Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO. It also insisted that the United States should not establish military bases with Ukraine or any other non-NATO or former Soviet Union countries, or even engage in “bilateral military cooperation”-in an attempt to open up a clearly defined sphere of influence of Russia.
This idea is obviously controversial. Especially in Eastern Europe, The memory of communist rule lingers. “Russian proposed Two draft treaties on December 17 To outline the establishment of a two-tiered Europe-one has the right to protect itself from Russia’s invasion, and the other must accept Russian hegemony as a new geopolitical reality,” said Oresia, an analyst at the Chatham Institute think tank. Lusevich wrote, In a recent paper.
Other experts believe that NATO has become overconfident. Joshua Shifrinson, associate professor of international relations at Boston University, stated that the United States and the West “have become less sensitive to Russia’s concerns in the large-scale post-Cold War relations”, ignoring that the Kremlin also has Significant thoughts. Benefit.
He added: “Russia does not want other political groups to appear near their home country. This is not difficult to understand. Imagine if China wants to form an alliance with Canada. A powerful country does not want other major powers to form alliances near their borders.”
Historian Schifflinson said that at the end of the Cold War, American and German strategists had already sent a “very clear signal” that NATO would not expand further east if Germany was allowed to reunify. But in the 1990s and early 2000s, as Russia struggled as an independent country and a series of Eastern bloc countries joined NATO and the European Union, this commitment to sphere of influence declined rapidly.
Critics of this idea believe that NATO’s recent support for Ukraine has been too little. “The lack of decisive action in the past let Russia know [can] William Albuquerque, a former U.S. NATO official and current director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank, said: “Russia has all the momentum in the current crisis,” he added, because the U.S. and NATO have agreed Talks with Kremlin diplomats in the new year.
Ukraine has had to endure the 2014 war, when Russia occupied Crimea and helped create a crisis that led to separatists taking control of the East Donbass region, where Unresolved low-intensity conflict have Killed about 14,000 peopleSince 2014, NATO allies have responded with stable but moderate military support.
About a hundred U.S. military trainers Located in the west of the country, far from the front line.Washington has Provided 2.5 billion U.S. dollars in military assistanceIncluding the Javelin anti-tank missile, which has been part of a gradual strategy to modernize the Kiev army since Russia occupied Crimea, and it is also the predecessor of Ukraine’s official membership of NATO.
What makes the Kremlin even more annoying is that Kiev purchased at least six TB2 drone from Turkey, Its effectiveness against Russian-made armor has been proven In the brief Nagorno-Karabakh war last year When Azerbaijan is used against Armenia. When deploying the drone, Putin told his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the phone in early December. Is a “provocation”.
NATO has repeatedly emphasized that it does not pose a military threat to Russia. For example, earlier this month, the British Defense Minister Ben Wallace stated that if it is attacked, it is “extremely unlikely” that Western troops will be sent to defend Ukraine.
But Shifrinson said that even if the West thinks it is acting mildly, it must better understand how people perceive its behavior. “Moscow understands that Ukraine will not be armed to the teeth or parked in the west tomorrow, but it is also asking where Ukraine will go in the future.”
