Angela Merkel’s departure from the political arena after a lapse of 16 years has not only ushered in a new era in Germany, but also shaken the balance of power in the European Union.
Potential candidates to succeed Merkel as European leader include Olaf Schultz, her successor at the helm of Europe’s largest economy, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.
But analysts warn that given the EU’s unresolved challenges—from internal rule of law disputes to global geopolitical marginalization, to the aftermath of Brexit, no one may be able to take on this task immediately.
Merkel was praised for leading the EU through crisis after crisis. Although her European colleagues had some opponents, she left the stage while still very popular at home and abroad.
Sebastian Reiche of the IESE Business School in Spain wrote: “Angela Merkel is regarded as one of the most important politicians of a generation and the de facto leader of the European Union. And the’leader of the free world’.”
In a recent survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, 41% of EU citizens said that if they could, they would vote for Merkel. In contrast, only 14% of people chose Macron.
“Sovereign Europe”
However, critics claim that Merkel’s strategy of being in a crisis and prioritizing economic interests, even when dealing with Russia or China, has contributed to inertia and stifled further European integration.
Her exit is likely to open the door for the other half of the European engine, Macron, to slide into the driver’s seat.
Star-studded: France has assumed the rotating presidency of the European Union since January. Macron stated that his goal is to create a “world strong, fully sovereign, free to choose and control its own destiny” in Europe.
With Germany’s new Social Democratic Party-led coalition seemingly focused on spending money to escape the pandemic, Germany’s age-old budget rigor seems to be shaken.
Also in terms of national defense, Germany, which once easily settled under the “American shield”, is no longer so sure after Donald Trump’s presidency forced the Berlin political class to bury their past certainty and begin to change their ideas.
To illustrate this change, the Social Democrats, ecologists Greens and the Liberal Democrats led by Schultz announced in their alliance agreement, “As a country with a strong economy and a large population in the center of Europe, their mission It is to support, promote and promote this sovereign Europe.”
Merkel’s departure “allows the development of France’s vision of a strong Europe, an ambition that Macron has been advocating since he came to power,” said Alexandre Robine-Borgomano of the Montaigne Institute.
“Merkelism” is out
With the changing of the guard in Berlin, Macron recently signed a new bilateral cooperation treaty with Draghi and launched a joint appeal this month to reform EU fiscal rules to allow more investment spending.
The ambitious 43-year-old president said that he is not seeking to replace Franco-German bonds, but that this move is made at a time when the European Union is realigning itself after Brexit.
However, Macron faces the 2022 election, and the extreme right poses a challenge.
Regardless of the outcome, France may be tied to domestic politics for a period of time, thereby limiting its ability to formulate a grand vision for Europe.
The 63-year-old former Treasury Secretary Schultz has served in Merkel’s two cabinets. He can seize the opportunity to become Merkel’s heir, especially when he assumes the 2022 G7 presidency.
But analysts warn that times have changed, and more “Merkelism” may not help the new era.
ECFR’s Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin wrote: “Policies of maintaining neutrality and avoiding tough solutions to European dilemmas do not seem to be viable solutions to future challenges.”
“Merkelism is unlikely to live longer than Merkel… because the EU will need a more visionary and courageous Germany to consolidate its foundation and defend its position in the world.”
Whether Schultz, who claimed to be an imitator of Merkel during the campaign, will step out of her shadow and take a bolder path is still inconclusive.
As these two major European players may need time to escape reality, a new stability pole has emerged in the once-indebted South.
“Stagnation”?
Draghi was called “Super Mario” during the time he was in charge of the European Central Bank, bringing stability to a country that was once synonymous with political turmoil and scandal.
Nicoletta Pirozzi of Istituto Affari Internazionali, a think tank in Rome, told AFP that Draghi “can fill the vacuum left by Angela Merkel as the European Council consensus builder”.
“In addition, compared with Merkel’s cautious attitude, he can cooperate with the new governments of France and Germany to inject new vitality into key areas of European integration, from economic governance reforms to foreign policy and national defense.”
But Pirozi pointed out that much depends on whether the 74-year-old Italian leader can successfully implement the EU’s economic recovery plan.
Italy’s January presidential election “may completely change the situation” because Draghi has also been touted as “one of the most credible potential candidates” in the campaign.
Before the emergence of the new leader, some analysts believed that the EU’s prospects were bleak.
“Europe may be heading towards a period of uncertainty and potential weakness,” Reiche warned.
Similarly, Thompson is also very pessimistic.
She wrote: “Due to the competition between the United States and China and the serious internal differences, the EU is living in a world different from that of Ms. Merkel in power.”
“The reality clearly states that neither the (new) German Chancellor nor the French government can lead Europe.
“In the absence of leadership, Europe is heading towards one thing-stagnation.”
