A year from now, headline CPI inflation is expected to fall between 4.2% and 6.8% year-on-year.
figure 1: CPI YoY Inflation (black), Median Expectations from Professional Forecasters Survey (Blue+), Median Expectations from Michigan Consumer Survey (red), Median NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (light green), Cleveland Forecast Fed (pink), average from Coibion-Gorodnichenko Corporate Expectations Survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed and Kobe and Gorodnichenko.
Note that while professional forecasters’ (average) forecasts generally exhibit less bias and lower RMSFE, they have not done so over the past year and a half (postal).More about forecasting and inclusion here. Lots of details from company/household inflation expectations Weber, D’Acunto, Gorodnichenko and Coibion in a recent paper.
