GS vs Atlanta and IHS-Markit:
figure 1: GDP (black), Professional Forecaster May Survey Consensus (red), Goldman Sachs (pink square), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (green triangle) and IHS-Markit (light blue triangle) in billions of Ch.2012$, SAAR. Nowcast as of July 8, 2022. Source: BEA and Goldman Sachs, Atlanta Fed and IHS-Markit, and author’s calculations.
Note that even though the advance release of Q2 growth is negative, the average absolute revision from advance to final year is about 1.26 percentage points (see Bank of East Asia (2021)). Given that GDPNow is -1.2% and IHS-Markit is -1.8% (both SAAR), the final growth rate may end up being positive. (This is also true for the first quarter as the MAR from third to last is 1.23 percentage points).see also discuss Revised GDP before and after the 2001 recession.
