Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow is 4% q/q.
figure 1: Reported GDP (black), WSJ October survey (red), GDPNow (tan square) and Goldman Sachs (green triangle), all in billions. Chain 2012, SAAR. . Source: BEA 2022Q3 Advance, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs (November 9, 2022) and author’s calculations.
In the short term, the reported decline in GDP appears to be over. It’s important to remember that we’ll have a better understanding of GDP, and an in-depth look at GDO, with our next release at the end of November. Currently, here are other measures of GDP in terms of income (GDI) and the average of spending and income (ie GDO).
figure 2: Reported GDP (black), GDPNow (tan), GDI (pink) and GDO (turquoise), all in billions. Chain 2012, SAAR. Source: BEA 2022Q3 Advance, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs (November 9, 2022) and author’s calculations.
