Weekly indicators of the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) weekly economic indicators and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) weekly trackers for the period ending January 14, 2023.
figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock weekly economic index (blue), OECD weekly tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims US weekly economic conditions index plus 2% trend (green).Source: New York Fed via fred, OECD, WECIand the author’s calculations.
The Weekly Tracker has rebounded sharply, falling into negative territory for the week ended 11/26 and now surpassing WEI (1.2%) and WECI+2% (2.2%). A WEI reading of 1.2% for the week ended 1/14 could be interpreted as a 1.2% YoY increase if the 1.2% reading persisted throughout the quarter. Baumeister et al. A reading of 0.17% was interpreted as a growth rate of 0.17% above the long-term trend growth rate. US GDP growth averaged around 2% over the period 2000-19, so this implies an annual growth rate of 2.17% as of 12/24. The OECD weekly tracking index reading of 2.9% can be interpreted as a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9% as of 14 January 2014.The 95% interval for the US Weekly Tracker is [2.3%, 4.2%].
The Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims weekly economic conditions indices are calculated at the state level. This allows one to see the dispersion of the cyclical component, as shown in Figure 2 below (note: these are cyclical rates, so add state-specific trend growth to get actual growth). The US series is shown in bold dark red and extends through January 14, 2023 (the state level ends two weeks earlier).
figure 2: Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims weekly economic conditions index (dark red bold) for states (through December 31, 2022) and the United States (through January 14, 2023). source: WECI.
All in all, the weekly indices are decelerating, with the exception of the weekly tracking index, which experienced a sharp correction. WECI also showed a cyclical growth deceleration in most states.
