Several special elections were held in the legislative districts of Georgia, Alabama, and Wisconsin last night. After the results came out, a common theme became obvious: Compared with the 2020 election, the Republican Party’s performance exceeded expectations.
However, the most striking thing is the election in Georgia. In suburban Atlanta, the Republican Party’s vote share hit a record low less than a year ago, and voters further tilted to the Republican Party by 22% yesterday.
Devan Seabaugh (R) won GA-LD-34 with a 63-37 advantage. This is 22 points higher than Trump’s historically lowest profit margin for this seat in suburban Atlanta.
-RRH election (@RRHElections) July 14, 2021
Now, because these special election results are very beneficial to Republicans, the media will not use them as a weather vane. Besides, I am not saying that they are decisive about what will happen in 2022.However, it is worth noting that We continue to see changes in these special elections Regarding the suburbs where the Republican Party suffered significant vote share losses in 2018 and 2020. If this happens, these places will achieve a Republican majority next year.
In other words, Democrats have a lot to worry about here, especially in a state like Georgia, where they have convinced themselves that the trend has changed forever. But you don’t have to believe me. Stacey Abrams’ organization responded to last night’s election, and the fear is obvious.
We are proud of Priscilla Smith’s campaign and proud of her #HD34 voter. Although the Georgia Republican Party’s textile mills are operating at high speed, they continue to fear that they will defeat their statewide voters of color again in November and January last year. #Gapol
-Fair Fight (@fairfightaction) July 14, 2021
Yes, the Republican Party won a Republican constituency-22 percentage points more than a year ago. These types of transformations will not remain isolated in a single region. Conversely, you will often see linear regression or progress in a state’s vote share in a major election. If this constituency is moved by 22 points, even in a special election, the swing constituency is likely to see some rightward movement in the next election, albeit to a lesser extent. But for Republicans to win a big victory in 2022, they just need to be smaller. Georgia’s profit margins are already negligible.
The fundamentals of the Democrats going forward are very bad. Separate redivision may be enough to hand over the House of Representatives to the Republicans, but if we continue to see suburban voters return to their normal voting patterns, things may develop into an absolute blowout, including Raphael Warnock in office Only two years later, he lost his seat.Plus Georgia New Voter Security Act Hopefully, many pranks in Fulton County can be stopped. The situation in the state is starting to look very different from last year.
The Democrats are clearly unsure of how to respond, as the Abrams and her accomplices bury their collective heads in the ground to show this. Hope they leave it there.
