The following is the growth path FT-IGM Survey Closed on March 16, about a week after the SVB incident.
figure 1: GDP (black), SPF median (blue), FT-IGM median (tan squares) and 10th and 90th percentiles (tan+), GDPNow (pink squares), all in In billions of Ch.2012$ SAAR. The modal response for recession dates is shaded dark gray. Source: BEA Second Edition, Atlanta Fed (3/24), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, FT-IGM March Surveyand the authors’ calculations.
The median FT-IGM survey is 1% growth in Q4/Q4 2023, 0.2% for the 10th and 2% for the 90th (my point estimate is 0.7%). The median growth rate put the level of GDP slightly higher than suggested by the median of the February survey of professional forecasters, which was completed in late January.
As of March 24, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow flash forecast points to essentially zero net growth in Q2-Q4. The modal response (as determined by NBER) for recession onset is 2023Q3 or 2023Q4.
Another interesting result has to do with peaks in the federal funds rate. Modal response (49% of respondents) was between 5.5%-6%. That’s higher than the peak implied by CME futures on March 15, and even higher than the March 19 peak.
figure 2: By March 22nd at 6pm ET (red square), March 19th at 4:30pm ET (pink square), March 8th (sky blue inverted triangle) and February 15th (green triangle) effective federal funds (black). Light orange shading indicates the modal response to the peak rate from the FT-IGM survey. Source: Fed via FRED, CME Fedwatch, FT-IGM March Surveyand the authors’ calculations.
