Mass shooting related, by March 2023

Estimated mass shooting casualties and return of mass shootings through March 29:

figure 1: Mass shooting casualties (deaths + injuries), left scale (brown) and mass shooting incidents (blue bar, right scale). Shades of gray indicate an assault weapons ban. Orange shading indicates the Trump administration. source: Mother Jones Database.

We can use regression analysis (GLM for casualties, negative binomial for events) to analyze correlations.

casualties_Ton = –1.76 – 0.72 prohibit_Ton + 1.21 trump card_Ton + 0.44 biden_Ton +0.00001Pop music_Ton

SER = 32.7, NOBS = 399. Bold indicates significance at 10% msl, standard error corrected for overdispersion (GLM, negative binomial option in EViews).

For the number of mass shootings, compute the regression:

event_Ton = –5.43 – 0.54 prohibit_Ton + 0.51 trump card_Ton + 0.64 biden_Ton +0.00001Pop music_Ton

Regulate-R² = 0.13, SER = 0.596, NOBS = 399. Bold indicates significance at 10% msl, standard error corrected for overdispersion (negative binomial in EViews).

The population in February and March equals the growth in January.