along with employment releasedespite a surprise rise in April numbers showing decelerating job growth, is the picture from the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) series, plus monthly GDP from S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), formerly of Macroeconomic Advisors.
figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg 5/5 consensus (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding 2012 China transfers (green), manufacturing and Trade Sales Ch.2012 USD (black), Ch.2012 USD Consumption (light blue) and Ch.2012 USD Monthly GDP (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. The Bloomberg consensus level is calculated by adding the forecast change to the previously unrevised level of available employment at the time of the forecast. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q1 released in advance via FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (5/1/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
as described in this article postalthe actual employment level is lower than imply The Bloomberg level, despite the large change in reporting, is due to downward revisions to previous months. The important point is that job growth is falling, as indicated by the flattening slope. This is true for several employment indicators.
figure 2: April 2023 CES nonfarm payrolls (blue), household series adjusted for NFP concept (green), total workers covered by QCEW, seasonalized using log-transformed Census X-13 (tan) Adjusted, using multiplicative moving averages (sky blue), Philadelphia Fed Preliminary Benchmark (pink squares), all 000, sa, both on a logarithmic scale. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, BLS QCEW, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphiaand the authors’ calculations.
Keep in mind that the data will be revised with no clear signs of a recession by 2023M04 – and no recession in 2022H1 either, as Some people speculate.
