NFP growth exceeded the Bloomberg consensus of 46,000 (private NFP growth of 36,000). Looking at multiple indicators of non-farm employment (overall, private) show continued growth.
figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment at CES (blue, left scale), ADP (tan, left scale), total nonfarm payroll employment at CES (bold black, right scale), NFP adjusted to author’s preliminary baseline (red, right scale), Bloomberg consensus at 1/3 (Salmon+), CPS employment adjusted to NFP concepts (pink, right scale), from the Philadelphia Fed Early Benchmark (red, right scale), all SA. Source: BLS, ADP, from FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fedand the author's calculations.
The December Bloomberg consensus level (based on preliminary benchmarks) was slightly higher than the actual result, as November and October employment data were revised downwards.
The non-farm employment alternative based on household surveys has declined, but it is necessary to remember that the variation in this series is much higher than in the establishment series. Recall further that the ADP series, based on a completely different data set than the BLS survey, showed continued growth in December.
