from Beaufit Today (translated by Google):
Overall production growth has declined in recent months
According to monthly estimates released by the Russian Ministry of Economy, Russia's annual GDP growth rate has slowed down significantly in recent months. Indicators from statistics agency Rosstat describing the development of the five main production sectors show that (seasonally adjusted) production volumes have turned to a slight decline.In January, (seasonally adjusted) production in the mining and processing industries was almost unchanged from recent months. Likewise, retail sales have remained virtually unchanged for months. Long-term growth in the construction industry also appeared to have stalled in January.
Here is the relevant chart:
source: Beaufit (March 14, 2024).
The article will be available in English tomorrow.
Back in February, Reuters famous:
Russia's Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasts (CAMAC) attributes 60-65% of the growth in industrial output over the past two years to the conflict in Ukraine.
…
The International Monetary Fund's forecast of 2.6% exceeded the 2.3% forecast by the Russian Economy Ministry. The organization said that Russia's tight labor market supported wage growth. CAMAC said real wages have now started to fall.
“Inflation is too high and businesses are no longer financially secure enough to raise wages quickly amid clear labor shortages,” CAMAC economists wrote.
In terms of real disposable income, the picture is even worse, with pensions and benefits not fully linked to inflation, which will be 7.4% in 2023 and 11.9% in 2022, they said.
Unemployment is at a record low of 2.9%, and hundreds of thousands of people have fled Russia or joined the military in the past two years.
Data from Rosstat shows that Russia's labor productivity index, one of Putin's key national development goals, fell by 3.6% annually in 2022, which is the largest annual decline since the global financial crisis in 2009.…
CAMAC experts say it may be too early to talk about a recession, but there are signs the economy is starting to stall in sectors such as auto production and construction.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that Russia's economic growth will drop to 1.1% next year, far lower than the world's developed economies.
“I don't think the current economic growth is durable or high-quality,” Nadosin said. “I think this is a harbinger of a coming economic crisis, possibly the first since 2004, that may not even require an external shock.”
