The February Coincidence Index is released today.
figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of nonfarm payrolls (pink), civilian employment (tan), linear interpolation of real wages and salaries, by state chain consumer price index ( Sky blue), GDP (red), and consistent index deflation (green), all in the log 2021M11=0.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of East Asia, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia [1], [2]and the author's calculations.
February's coincidental index further reinforced January's surge in activity.
CROWE February Forecast JJ Kuo's research shows an annual growth rate (median) of 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Wisconsin Department of Defense's February forecast is 1.6% year-over-year.
think back Wisconsin Republican Party January Advocacy:
“From recession to cheering for DEI, Gov. Tony Evers has dragged Wisconsin down during his tenure. …”
I will observe Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia State-Level Business Cycle Dating MethodReliance on the Consensus Index shows no recession occurred during Governor Evers' tenure. While it's not the only way to determine state-level decline, the Wisconsin Republican Party did not explain how they made their decision in their brief statement.
