The latest consumer price index showed a fall in household food prices.
figure 1: CPI (bold black), household food composition (light blue) and ERS January forecast (blue squares), all in logarithmic form, 2021M01=0. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, emergency roomand the author's calculations.
At the national level, household food content has declined for three consecutive months. The USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) forecast for year-end consumer price index (CPI) fell slightly as a result.
A similar pattern of food price declines has been seen in the northern part of the Middle East, including Wisconsin.
figure 2: Northeast-Central CPI (bold black) and Northeast-Central Household Food Composition (light blue), all expressed in logarithmic form, 2021M01=0. The authors seasonally adjust the series using X-13 (horizontal log transformation). Source: BLS and author's calculations.
However, the household food/overall gap remains wide as the overall consumer price index in the subregion has not increased as much as nationally.
