From the Wall Street Journal survey:
figure 1: 10-year Treasury bond yield (black), Wall Street Journal survey in October 2020 (red square), January 2021 (blue triangle), April 2021 (cyan triangle) and July 2021 (pink square), At the end of all quarters, %. Source: FRED, Wall Street Journal surveys by the Federal Reserve.
Putting the forecast in context, the July forecast for June 2022 is the same as the median of the survey of professional forecasters, only slightly higher than the CBO June forecast. In this sense, the forecast for mid-2022 is not much different.
figure 2: Ten-year Treasury bond yield (black), “Wall Street Journal” July 2021 (pink square), CBO (red), administration (blue), survey of professional forecasters (blue-green), %; Outside the Daily, the quarterly average of all monthly data. The date of the CBO and the administrative department refers to the time when the forecast is “locked in”. Source: Federal Reserve through FRED, OMB, CBO, Philadelphia Federal Reserve and Wall Street Journal surveys.
