Boris Johnson’s pendulum goes from “Freedom Day” to “Extremely Cautious” unlocking Changes in government thinking – Relaxing almost all restrictions at this stage is accompanied by huge risks. Due to the risk of Beta variants, the quarantine of fully vaccinated people returning from France seems to be another sign of the beginning of the panic.
Delta is the main variant in the UK, and its spread is much higher than the Beta variant first discovered in South Africa. But for a long time, the danger of Beta is that it can defeat any vaccine barrier, especially the AstraZeneca vaccine. The beta version actually predates Delta-it was first recorded in the UK in December, but it never fully took off. In South Africa, it occupies a dominant position.It also accounts for one-tenth of new infections in the United States France, But the data includes the French territories of Reunion and Mayotte, where variants almost dominate.
At the same time, Delta Air Lines is driving a surge in Covid infections across the UK. Scientists have long warned that fully unlocking part of the immune population (only half of the UK is fully vaccinated) is the secret to the emergence of new dangerous variants. Unlocking may not only lead to a sharp rise in Delta cases, and may make way for the variant to mutate further, but may even adapt to the spread of the more vaccine-evasive Beta version.
So far, in terms of infections in the UK, Beta has been relatively quiet-perhaps because of the initial number of seeders or demographic data.According to government data, only 1,073 confirmed and probable cases (And not in the week before July 7). So why did Beta suddenly block the British airwaves again?
On Saturday, the government was involved in a Hostile diplomatic confrontation with France, After deciding to continue the 10-day quarantine for fully vaccinated people returning from the country (due to the risk of the Beta version)-previously announced that fully vaccinated British people returning from countries on the “Amber” list Isolation is no longer required after July 19.
France’s rule changes are not completely unreasonable-data from a small study earlier this year showed that the AstraZeneca vaccine is only about 10% effective in preventing mild to moderate diseases induced by Beta, Although scientists still expect this jab to prevent serious diseases. The government seems to be trying not to complicate the situation by allowing the spread of a variant that may cause the disease in a fully vaccinated population-but in a larger plan, by allowing the virus to fully spread among the British population. That said, unlocking can happen anyway.
“From our point of view, asking people to quarantine does feel quite hypocritical,” said Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, who cited the UK’s policy of basically ending most people on Monday. Restrictions to effectively increase the number of cases. “This is a completely contradictory message-in fact, we have not followed any appropriate behavior, but we will isolate people from France.”
Let the case be torn apart in the UK while removing legal restrictions, such as wear mask Being alienated from society may be a hotbed of various dynamic changes. Griffin pointed out that although Beta is not as easy to spread as Delta or even Alpha (the first variant found in Kent), when a large number of vaccinated people are mixed indoors, this may help Beta spread, and warned that This is just speculation now.
No one has a crystal ball large enough or shiny enough to predict how people will behave when more restrictions are lifted, the dynamics of different variants after unlocking, or whether new vaccine-resistant variants will indeed increase transmission. However, with the virus raging here, the argument for sanctions against fully vaccinated travelers returning from places with low infection rates is difficult to understand.
Scientists predict that there may be 100,000 cases a day in the UK this summer-the higher the transmission rate, the more chance the virus has to evolve. Lawrence Young, a virologist at the University of Warwick, suggested that if someone wants to conduct natural experiments to produce vaccine-resistant variants, the July 19th unlock will be the way to achieve this goal. Of course, the Beta version is still a threat-but now the risk of unlocking is much greater.
