The Philadelphia Federal Reserve today released the simultaneous index for June. Wisconsin has regained the level of economic activity recorded at the peak of the NBER in February 2020.
figure 1: Wisconsin Coincidence Index (black), non-agricultural employment (blue-green), civilian employment (red). The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray. Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.
Wisconsin’s coincident index was 0.12% higher than the previous peak, while the United States as a whole fell 2.53%.As in this postal, Employment (one of the inputs to the synchronization index) roughly matches the Wisconsin DoR forecast.
The relative position of the Wisconsin Index relative to other states is shown in Figure 2.
figure 2: The percentage of the Philadelphia Fed’s June synchronization index relative to 2020M02. The darker the color, the larger the positive number. Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank and author’s calculations.
Given the spread of delta variants in southern states with relatively low vaccination rates, it will be interesting to see if July/August has an impact on growth.This Baumeister et al.Weekly index (As of July 10) There has not been a large negative growth rate in states such as Missouri and Arkansas. (Look Wabo Used for trend assessment. )
