Opinion polls found that the majority government of the Liberal Party is “skeptical” because the leading edge of the Conservative Party has narrowed

As federal parties prepare for the possible federal election in the coming months, new polls show that weakening support for the Liberal Party will make it difficult to win a majority government.

According to the latest Ipsos poll, the Conservative Party is now closing the gap. The Liberal Party dropped by two percentage points at 36%, while the Conservative Party rose by 4 percentage points last month, reaching a national level. By 30%.

Opinion polls also show that the New Democracy Party remains stable and will get 20% of the votes, while the Quebec Group will get 7% of the votes nationwide. The Green Party will get 3% of the vote, and even fewer Canadians will vote for the BJP or any other party, with 2% per person.

Two in ten Canadians either do not vote or are unsure who they should vote for.

Although the Liberal Party still leads the Conservative Party by 6%, according to opinion polls, this lead is still not enough to allow them to surpass the current minority government.

Darrell Bricker, Chief Executive Officer of Ipsos Public Affairs, said that the main issue that separates the Liberal Party from the coveted majority government is whether they can find a district that can get enough votes. .

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“Canadian politics has nothing to do with national numbers. This is about regional numbers. This is about all the competitions that are taking place in the region,” he said.

According to Brick, the main provinces where the Liberal Party should now consider securing enough seats for the majority are Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia-where current opinion polls show that the Liberal Party does not have “enough” lead. Drive the number of their seats past 170.

“The problem facing the Liberal Party is that they must find a place where they can get enough votes. [where] They will create a sufficient gap between themselves and their main opponents in the previous campaign,” Brick said.

“And so far, they haven’t really discovered this.”

According to Brick, the best place for the Liberals to get enough seats in Canada is Quebec where they find themselves in fierce competition with the Quebec group.

Brick said that if elections—especially elections with low turnout rates—are held soon, the certainty of voters will also be an important factor.

According to public opinion surveys, the Conservative Party’s vote is still the strongest among its supporters. Nearly half of Conservative Party voters said they are absolutely sure of their choice.

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If elections with low turnout are held, the Conservative Party, which tends to have more habitual voters on their side, will have an advantage.

“The Conservative Party has a little advantage. Is it enough to win? Not based on these numbers, but it is certainly enough to deny that the Liberal Party has a majority,” Brick said.

Among the supporters of other political parties, approximately 44% of the EU, 43% of the Liberal Party, 36% of the Green Party, and 31% of the New Democratic Party voters are still bound by their choices.

Although the Conservative Party received the strongest support, when Canadians were asked which parties had the greatest growth potential, they found the opposite trend. The poll found that the New Democracy Party was elected as the second choice of all people, accounting for 20%, while only 10% of people would vote for the Conservative Party as the second choice.

Although the approval rate of the Liberal Party has fallen in the past month, opinion polls still found that Justin Trudeau and his party have strong “fundamentals”—50% approve of the performance of the current federal government.

Although this performance is still strong, polls found that such approvals are easily broken-only 10% said they “strongly support” and 40% said they “a little bit support”.

Brick said what he found interesting is that about 42% of Canadians believe that the Trudeau government “is doing a good job and is worthy of being re-elected.”

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“The percentage of people who think incumbents are worthy of being re-elected is 42. If the Liberal Party gets 42 in this election, they will definitely have the majority.”

In this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians over the age of 18 was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,001 was interviewed online through the Ipsos I-Say group and non-group sources. Respondents received a nominal reward for participating. Quotas and weights are used to balance demographic data to ensure that the composition of the sample reflects the composition of the adult population in the census data, and to provide results designed to approximate the scope of the sample. The accuracy of Ipsos polls, including non-probability sampling, is measured using credible intervals. In this case, if all Canadians take the poll, the accuracy of the poll is within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 out of 20. The confidence interval between the overall subsets will be wider. All sample surveys and public opinion surveys may be affected by other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage errors and measurement errors.